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freeforex
(Central, Egypt)
freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
16 hours ago
May 24, 2019 16:15

Head and Shoulders Top

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).

Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.

Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.

Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.

Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.

Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.

Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.


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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
4 days ago
May 20, 2019 17:08
Double Bottom Reversal
The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.

Note that a Double Bottom Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from Double Bottom Breakdown on a P&F chart. Namely, Double Bottom Breakdowns on P&F charts are bearish patterns that mark a downside support break.

United Technologies Corp. (UTX) Double Bottom Reversal example chart from StockCharts.com

Although there can be variations, the classic Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can form during a downtrend, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.

Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.

First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.

Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.

Second Trough: The decline off of the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver; typically, a trough within 3% of its predecessor is considered valid.

Advance From Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top. There should be clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.

Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. Like advances, these should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.

Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.

Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.

It is important to remember that the Double Bottom Reversal is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer to form than tops; patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. Volume indicators such as Chaikin Money Flow, OBV and Accumulation/Distribution can be used to look for signs of buying pressure. Just as with the double top, it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.


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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
10 days ago
May 14, 2019 21:46
Develop your Trading Plan

Sometimes there is a misconception that you need highly evolved market knowledge and years of trading experience to be successful. However, we often see that the more information we have the more difficult it is to create a clear plan. More information tends to create hesitation and doubt, which in turn allows emotions to creep in. This can prevent you from taking a step back and looking at a situation subjectively.

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. In trading, if you don’t set out a plan for your trades and develop strategies to follow you have no way to measure your success. The vast majority of people do not trade to a plan, so it’s not a mystery why they lose money. Trading with a plan is comparable to building a business. We are never going to be able to beat the market. In general it’s not about winning or losing, it’s about being profitable overall.

Why a trading plan is important
When trading, as in most endeavors, it’s important to start at the end and work backwards to create your plan and figure out what type of trader you should be. The most successful traders trade to a plan, and may even have several plans that work together. Always write things down. Why? Because it will help you stay focused on your trading objectives, and the less judgment we have to use the better. A plan helps you maintain discipline as a trader. It should help you trade consistently, manage your emotions, and even help to improve your trading strategy. It is also important to use your plan. Many people make the mistake of spending all their time creating a plan, then never implementing it.

Key components to develop a trading plan
Trading plan structure and monetary goals
Research and education
Strategy using fundamental and technical tools
Money and risk management
Timing
Trade mechanics, documentation, and testing
How to build a trading plan
Make sure you do your own research and build a plan according to your needs. Find confidence in what you know. The tools you have selected for your strategy are key, from the type of chart to the specific drawing tools to even the most elaborate of strategies. Test your plan in the beginning to make sure you are on the right track. After you have begun trading, continue testing it regularly. This allows you to measure your success by clearly seeing what works and what does not work. From there you can tweak elements that might be weaker and not contributing to your overall goal. Ask yourself the following questions (The answers to these will assist you in the foundation for your trading plan and should be referred back to regularly to insure that you are on track with your plan.)

Why am I trading?
If your immediate answer is, “to make money” you should stop right there. If the only goal is to make as much money as fast as we can, we are ultimately doomed, because it will never be enough. Managing your losses should be your primary goal. This will create an environment in which profits can be generated.

What is your motivation?
Solid retirement? New career? Spend more time with family and friends?

Ask yourself, “What are my strengths and weaknesses?”
How do I maximize my strengths to minimize my weaknesses?
An example of a weakness is a need to constantly watch one’s trades. Is your laptop on the pillow, waking you up in the middle of the night to monitor trades? It’s really difficult to make intelligent decisions when you’re half awake.
Is the amount of money I have to trade with sensible to achieve my goals?
Look at things in percentages; remember leverage is a double-edged sword. That is why risk and money management are key.

Deciding what type of trader you are can be tough; especially since the trader you want to be can be very different from the type of trader you should be based on your behaviors and characteristics. Once you have laid out your goals, risk appetite, strengths, and weaknesses it should become apparent which type of trading fits you best. You will notice three columns in the chart; they are labeled short, base and long. Base equals the timeframe charts you spend the majority of your time, if you are not sure, this is the timeframe chart that you keep going back to. Short and long are the timeframe charts that you refer to confirming or denying what is happening in the base timeframe chart. A common mistake traders make is jumping around randomly between chart timeframes.


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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
16 days ago
May 8, 2019 21:17
Understanding Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools.

Technical analysis boils down to two things:

identifying trend
identifying support/resistance through the use of price charts and/or timeframes
Markets can only do three things: move up, down, or sideways.

Prices typically move in a zigzag fashion, and as a result, price action has only two states:

Range – when prices zigzag sideways
Trend – prices either zigzag higher (up trend, or bull trend), or prices zigzag lower (down trend, or bear trend)
Understanding Technical Analysis Chart
Why is technical analysis important?
Technical analysis of a market can help you determine not only when and where to enter a market, but much more importantly, when and where to get out.

How can you use technical analysis?
Technical analysis is based on the theory that the markets are chaotic (no one knows for sure what will happen next), but at the same time, price action is not completely random. In other words, mathematical Chaos Theory proves that within a state of chaos there are identifiable patterns that tend to repeat.

This type of chaotic behavior is observed in nature in the form of weather forecasts. For example, most traders will admit that there are no certainties when it comes to predicting exact price movements. As a result, successful trading is not about being right or wrong: it’s all about determining probabilities and taking trades when the odds are in your favor. Part of determining probabilities involves forecasting market direction and when/where to enter into a position, but equally important is determining your risk-to-reward ratio.

Remember, there is no magical combination of technical indicators that will unlock some sort of secret trading strategy. The secret of successful trading is good risk management, discipline, and the ability to control your emotions. Anyone can guess right and win every once in a while, but without risk management it is virtually impossible to remain profitable over time.


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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
22 days ago
May 3, 2019 1:48
Chandelier Exit

The Chandelier Exit is basically a volatility-based system that identifies outsized price movements. Le Beau defined volatility by using the Average True Range, which was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of RSI and the Average Directional Index. ATR uses the prior close, current high and current low to determine the “True Range” for a given period. After some smoothing, the daily True Range values evolve into the Average True Range for a given period of time.
By setting the Chandelier Exit for longs three ATR values BELOW the period high, the indicator provides a buffer that is three times the volatility. A decline strong enough to break this level warrants a reevaluation of long positions. The opposite applies to short positions. The Chandelier Exit for shorts is set three ATR values ABOVE the period low, which provides a volatility-based buffer. An advance strong enough to exceed this level warrants a reevaluation of short positions.
Chandelier Uptrend and forex signals
Sometimes chartists will see a strong uptrend, but not know where to jump on and when to exit. The Chandelier Exit can be used to define the trend and set a trailing stop-loss. The example below shows Eaton Corp (ETN) breaking out in early November and starting an extended uptrend. The Chandelier Exit defined this uptrend quite well as it followed price action steadily higher. This trailing stop-loss could have been used to control risk for new long positions.
With the Chandelier Exit providing the stop-loss, traders would then need to find an indicator to trigger buy signals within this trend. A sensitive momentum oscillator can be used to capture short-term oversold conditions. The indicator window shows StochRSI, which is the Stochastic Oscillator applied to RSI. Dips below .20 reflect short-term oversold conditions. A subsequent move back above .20 suggests that the uptrend is continuing.
forex signals Chandelier Downtrend
Some stocks are more volatile than others and require a bigger buffer, which means the multiplier should be increased. The Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) example shows the stock in a clear downtrend for most of 2012. A normal Chandelier Exit (22,3.0,short) would have triggered some stops just before the downtrend continued. Notice how HPQ moved above the dashed gray line several times during this downtrend. Chartists should increase the ATR multiplier for more volatile stocks, such as techs. In this example, the red Chandelier line allows for more volatility by using 5 as the multiplier. HPQ held this Chandelier setting until the breakout in mid-December, which signaled the start of an uptrend.
The Chandelier Exit is good for stops, but chartists need to use basic chart analysis or a momentum oscillator to time entries. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) can be used to identify short-term overbought conditions within a downtrend. CCI becomes overbought with a move above +100. A subsequent move back below +100 signals that momentum is turning down again.
Conclusions
The Chandelier Exit is mostly used to set a trailing stop-loss for forex signals during a trend. Trends sometimes extend further than we anticipate and the Chandelier Exit can help traders ride the trend a little longer. Even though it is mostly used for stop-losses, the Chandelier Exit can also be used as a trend tool. A break above the Chandelier Exit (long) forex signals strength, while a break below the Chandelier Exit (short) forex signals weakness. Once a new trend begins, chartists can then use the corresponding Chandelier Exit to help define this trend.

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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
32 days ago
Apr 22, 2019 22:28
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
43 days ago
Apr 11, 2019 14:18
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
47 days ago
Apr 7, 2019 19:51
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
50 days ago
Apr 4, 2019 15:35

Pivots Points and support and resistance levels

Pivots Points are significant levels chartists can use to determine directional movement and potential support/resistance levels. Pivot Points use the prior period's high, low and close to estimate future support and resistance levels. In this regard, Pivot Points are predictive or leading indicators. There are at least five different versions of Pivot Points. This article will focus on Standard Pivot Points, Demark Pivot Points and Fibonacci Pivot Points for forex trading signals

Pivot Points were originally used by floor traders to set key levels. Like modern-era day traders, floor traders dealt in a very fast moving environment with a short-term focus. At the beginning of the trading day, floor traders would look at the previous day's high, low and close to calculate a Pivot Point for the current trading day. With this Pivot Point as the base, further calculations were used to set support 1, support 2, resistance 1, and resistance 2. These levels would then be used to assist their trading throughout the day.
Pivot Points Conclusions
Pivot Points Conclusions and forex trading signals
Pivot Points offer chartists a methodology forex trading signals to determine price direction and then set support and resistance levels. It usually starts with a cross of the Pivot Point. Sometimes the market starts above or below the Pivot Point. Support and resistance come into play after the crossover. While originally designed for floor traders, the concepts behind Pivot Points can be applied across various timeframes. As with all indicators, it is important to confirm Pivot Point forex trading signals with other aspects of technical analysis. A bearish candlestick reversal pattern could confirm a reversal at second resistance and forex trading signals . Oversold RSI could confirm oversold conditions at second support. An upturn in MACD could be used to confirm a successful support test. On a final note, sometimes the second or third support/resistance levels are not seen on the chart. This is simply because their levels exceed the price scale on the right. In other words, they are off the chart.
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
54 days ago
Mar 31, 2019 20:51
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