EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Everything is fake and they are able to lie and build false figures in order to mislead the financial markets (which they hate because more or less they have a socialist mindset in which capitalism is evil)
I'm used to read this hatered rhetoric against the financial markets everyday in the newspapers. I guess it's alike in Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece of course. In the middle of the Greek storm, journalists and politicians from all EU nations were pointing their fingers to the markets, accusing them to be the actual culprit of the crisis. Never or rareley they have been able to recognize their own lack of responsibility in the deficit accumulation over the last 20 years nor their disastrous welfare policy.
Now they are building a fairy tale in which everything is OK even though the entire eurozone is falling apart. More public money will be spend for more unemployed people. Believe me, it's the magic formula that the new soviet-EU bureaucracy is going to come up with.
I guess the markets at some point are eager to buy this story because the world is tired to see the gloom and doom for almost 3 years.
So let's dream a little bit more. After all, who cares ?
So IMO this is going to be a huge roller coaster over the next months
So maybe it's not only a risk appetite but rather a dollar weakness related to oil (but remember what happened to oil and dollar after the Olympic games in 2008)
I'm waiting for the end of the World Cup and expect the downtrend to resume. Too much people being busy to watch TV and excited about football-soccer. Let this frenzy fade mid July.
First, I do think China is behind this. It's in China's interest to underpin euro, otherwise Yuan would go up (because yuan is tied to dollar). Plus, China is buying everything in Europe...
Two, as I said in other thread here, there's a world cup effect ! As we saw in summer 2008 with Olympic Games. At that time, euro hit 1.60$ and oil 144$ per barrel. Everybody out there and my mother said it was crazy and unsustainable (no need to belong to GS team to understand that). And we know what happened next in september and october 2008.
So, for now this market is technically driven. No matter what are the news. This thing is going up till july or maybe august . We'll see.
Then, the normal course of event will come due. We might see a big european bank collapsing or even a collapse in consumer spending (taxes and income revenues are to be paid in september in France, I don't know for the piigs)
I'm pretty sure also that Greece will post one of its worse touristic seasons. The greek GDP should
also reflect that pretty soon.
For now, the bank's overnight deposit at the BCE is still going up (almost 400 billions euros) and that reminds me - again - summer 2008, before Lehman.
In fact, the public debt in those countries is far higher than US. So, in my humble opinion, it is not accurate to compare the US public debt with European countries. Also, one cannot compare a state loaded with debt like California with a country like France (although the GDP is very close).
In one hand California can raise taxes or implement VAT, in the other hand, France has already 20% of VAT and has one of most expensive tax rate per capita in the world . There is no room for tax hike in France and in the PIGS. And if they do so, the GDP will collapse. If you add the real estate bubble in France, which has not burst so far, you have a pretty ugly picture looming in the months to come.
The situation is also far worse in Europe than US when it comes to demography. The actual birth rate is declining among native Europeans. So that the declining workforce is actually underpinned with immigrants with low skill level and high difficulties to incorporate. Not to mention the incrising risk of riots and religious conflicts in the suburbs.
I can tell you from the inside that Europe has no option but fail.
On the other hand, Club Med countries cannot exit without collapsing.
Just imagine one country announcing theyll leave the euro, what would happen? As soon as theyd do that, all the money, deposits, cash, equity available would leave the country as well. The country would be bankrupt immediately.
Theres no single solution thats flawless and acceptable. If Germany exits, then Euro will go down, but for German it will be difficult too. As soon as the news of a German exit leaks the euro monetary mass available in Germany will seek a safe haven too (gold or dollar). Then when the new deutschmark will be on the FX market with a public exchange rate, that money will come back and the DM will rise dramatically.