Posts by "jcd5816"

Qingyu and mo forget H&S patterns and focus on market structure, not price. One, every trader in every chat room, forex twits is only focused on price. If 80-90% of retail traders loose, why would you focus on what they focus on. Think about that. Price is the least important part of market structure. Let me give you an example. If you can, pull up Aussie weekly FUTURES CONTRACT. Since forex is not on an exchange you have to use the futures market to get volume and open interest. First, for week ending 12/10 open interest rose 24%. What does than mean, it means as the market retraced the previous week's gains(w/e 12/3) more people were interested in initiating positions. Who were those people? If you look at the COT report for last week you will see LARGE SPECS(i.e. hedge funds and big money) almost doubled their long position. I suggest it is reasonable to assume that big money(i.e. professionals) bought aud/usd last week. Another thing, if you follow the forex twits stream, most traders were shorting aud/usd(following these guys is a short cut to finding who the losing trader is). Traders who post their positions are, for the most part, day traders, small time frame traders. A good piece of advice, lengthen the time frame you trade on, it might mean less trades but to quote J. Livermore "The big money is made in the big swing". On volume, last week's down bar(12/10) had higher volume than the previous week's(12/3) bar. What does that say, more people did something than the week before, but notice the sellers were not even able to push the market down to test last week's(12/3) opening range at .9682. and the week left a small bid wick. Nothing in certain in trading, this analysis could be wrong, but I always think in terms of probabilities. Become a better OBSERVER of the markets, most people try to PREDICT where price is going. Sorry for the lengthy post but just thought I would share my thoughts, I used to focus on price and was, for the most part, ended up with net losses. I AM NOT SAYING H&S patterns are useless, just learn to use them in the context of MARKET STRUCTURE.

Happy Trading
Caleb