Posts by "jcd5816"

Right on DaveO. On a more fundamental question, how do you view David C. fiscal plan/austerity. The U.K. seems to be getting their fiscal house in order, can't say the same for the U.S. Long term I like sterling.

DaveO, no worry man, I do not take offense to anyone on this forum. I enjoy the discussion and the d/f views other traders bring. IRON SHARPENS IRON. Your trader friend is very skilled indeed. He obviously has a PROVABLE edge with a robust system of money management. If traders of any type can identify a PROVABLE edge, it does not matter how they trade or on what timeframe, most however do not know their edge. Believe me, I learned, through many losses and a mentor, how to develop my edge to the best of my ability and I try to build on that everyday. I love trying to help novice traders b/c I believe they need sound advice(I know I did) instead of most of the dribble that is out there now.

In my opinion, scalping is a hard way to trade for a living, like you said most traders will decide what type of trading suits them. It really depends on what you want out of forex trading. If you are looking to make big money and a good living, scalping the market everyday would be very hard. I would guess the people making a living scalping forex everyday is very low. I am sure there are some but they are the exceptions. Scalping also uses tremendous MENTAL CAPITAL, b/c you have to make so many decisions about what to do. The 80/20 rule probably applies in FOREX, in that 80% make most the money.

Qingyu and mo forget H&S patterns and focus on market structure, not price. One, every trader in every chat room, forex twits is only focused on price. If 80-90% of retail traders loose, why would you focus on what they focus on. Think about that. Price is the least important part of market structure. Let me give you an example. If you can, pull up Aussie weekly FUTURES CONTRACT. Since forex is not on an exchange you have to use the futures market to get volume and open interest. First, for week ending 12/10 open interest rose 24%. What does than mean, it means as the market retraced the previous week's gains(w/e 12/3) more people were interested in initiating positions. Who were those people? If you look at the COT report for last week you will see LARGE SPECS(i.e. hedge funds and big money) almost doubled their long position. I suggest it is reasonable to assume that big money(i.e. professionals) bought aud/usd last week. Another thing, if you follow the forex twits stream, most traders were shorting aud/usd(following these guys is a short cut to finding who the losing trader is). Traders who post their positions are, for the most part, day traders, small time frame traders. A good piece of advice, lengthen the time frame you trade on, it might mean less trades but to quote J. Livermore "The big money is made in the big swing". On volume, last week's down bar(12/10) had higher volume than the previous week's(12/3) bar. What does that say, more people did something than the week before, but notice the sellers were not even able to push the market down to test last week's(12/3) opening range at .9682. and the week left a small bid wick. Nothing in certain in trading, this analysis could be wrong, but I always think in terms of probabilities. Become a better OBSERVER of the markets, most people try to PREDICT where price is going. Sorry for the lengthy post but just thought I would share my thoughts, I used to focus on price and was, for the most part, ended up with net losses. I AM NOT SAYING H&S patterns are useless, just learn to use them in the context of MARKET STRUCTURE.

Happy Trading
Caleb

Lisa, it shouldn't matter what Ashraf says and I personally don't believe he needs to come on here when a call he made turns out to be wrong, I am wrong all the time, but I still make money. The best traders in the world have winning % b/w 45-70%(at least the ones I know). As long as you are right 50% of the time and pull $2 out for every 1$ you give back, you have a winning approach. I assure you winning traders do not spend time parsing every word Ashraf says, to play gotcha when he happens to miss. I have followed him for a long time and he hits winners more than 50% of the time. He is not advising you make the trade, he is just giving you his perspective from his 20 plus years of experience. You can take it or leave it. Concentrate on your discipline and forget the rest.

Happy trading,
Caleb