Posts by "montmorency"

@Pipster: If you have not read Ashraf's book yet, you should do so.

To support what Catnip said about Belgium, recent election results look good for Flemish separatists: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/14/belgium-flemish-separatist-election-win

I first visited Belgium late 60s/early 70s, and the linguistic struggles were in evidence then, sometimes breaking out into fisticuffs. It has not gone away and has been simmering. I suppose the language thing is really a surrogate for economic issues, as the old heavy industries of the Walloon south have given way to the more modern ones of the north, and the prosperity has shifted from south to north. In some ways it is a microcosm of Europe. It is not quite fair to say they have no production. They are hard-working, as well as fun-loving, people. A bit chaotic sometimes, perhaps :)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/14/lunatics-economy-cuts-frankin-roosevelt

"The lunatics are back in charge of the economy and they want cuts, cuts, cuts"

"Franklin D Roosevelt's mistake wasn't boosting the economy with government spending, it was heeding the advice of the deficit hawks when he sought re-election and tipping the US economy back into recession"

[Larry Elliott, economics editor The Guardian, Monday 14 June 2010]

False breaks, or just "normal" retracements to a long downtrend?
If we look at, say, a daily chart since around January, long-term shorting EUR/USD looks like a no-brainer. However, at the time, with lots of false-breaks or retracements, it was nothing like so easy, despite Ashraf telling us back then it was probably going down to 1.32. 1.32 now seems like a distant memory :-) Have the fundamentals really changed since those days? If anything, things have got worse for the Euro. So I think we should not be surprised how far down it can go, but equally, we should never be surprised how far back up it can bounce (before finally resuming it downward spiral).

Have to have something worth exporting, or else it is just (to borrow your phrase) pushing on string. Meanwhile the cost of imports goes up, pushing up inflation.