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Posts by "montmorency"
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74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
https://www.mcssl.com/content/166063/CC/021611_CC_final.pdf
(You might need to have signed up for their free newsletter before being able to see it. A google on the title, "What if Ben is right and the doom-and-gloom crowd is wrong?", might possibly pull up a copy.
(There is a plug for their services at the end, which can be ignored, but there is genuine content ahead of that).
As for the CIA on the other hand, I think their fingers have been in quite a few pies, some discovered, some yet to be discovered. Ultimately, it is essential that the USA's man gets in in Egypt (whoever it may turn out to be). They didn't handle the succession (from the Shah) very well in Iran, and we are living with the consequences to this day. Same could happen in Egypt. The law of unintended consequences.
Many thanks Catnip. I have recently obtained and briefly tried a free CSM which depends on data from an MT4 broker, which happens to be a market maker. (I don't have access to interbank data :-( ).
I guess this is not the same as having the professional tool, but it's better than nothing.
One possible use of this, as I have read, is to spot a change from risk aversion to risk appetite, for example. Also to draw your attention to changes across the market, which may alert you to "news" that you had not spotted before. Quicker than looking at all the relevant charts. Early days using it for me, so I'll see how it goes.
Thanks again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eur-shortage-follows-hot-heels-pervasive-usd-lack
It does seem to chime in with a few things Catnip has referred to in the past (I believe).
Not sure if the timing tallies exactly though.
Looking on the daily chart, the turn in the market was after the low of 7th June, before the "Yuan Depeg" announcement. Perhaps there were other factors that started the turn, like bad US data, Euroland manoeuvring, or perhaps China was just buying Euros at that point.
Also, between 21st-30th June, the upward swing seemed to have faltered, fooling some of us into believing the long downward trend had resumed. Subsequently, the big upmoves (to date) happened on the 1st July, 13th July and 15th July, with not much in the way of retracement in between.
You are all right, of course. I have always assumed responsibility for my own trades. How can it be otherwise? But trends, and more importantly trend changes are easy to spot...in hindsight. And when the fundamentals don't really appear to have changed....well, one can be caught off-guard. That's where money-management and all those other good things come into importance...to limit your risk and losses.
Clearly market sentiment changed regarding the USD, what with a series of bad US data, plus Europe at least appearing to get to grips with sovereign debt.
It is clear as crystal (now) that the EUR/USD market changed around 7th June. Kudos to those who either anticipated this, or spotted it early. Not that many, if postings here are anything to go by.
Well, looking forward, I see that an FXstreet analyst is saying that if the weekly close is above 1.28, then another round of short-covering may take place. I guess then that 1.30 would be relatively easily achievable.