EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Intraday Intermarket Trading التداول الإنترماركت
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت و التحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds. Watch here.
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
@Station: Of course a weak home currency potentially helps exports, but first, you have to have something worth exporting (like Germany). Tourism is ok, but we can't live by that alone; that is for 3rd World countries, not the mother of the industrial revolution. The outgoing "New" Labour government belatedly decided to pay some attention to industry in its last dying days, having ignored it for the best part of 13 years. Perhaps the Conservatives will do better, but I doubt it.
I remember years ago in pre-Euro days and before I knew anything about trading, observing the exchange rates in the newspaper, and observing that, like ourselves, Italy had a "leaky" currency that just kept getting weaker, whereas Switzerland and Germany were rock solid, and just kept getting stronger.
Devaluation should be the icing on the export cake; it shouldn't be the whole cake. It should be like a gas/accelerator pedal to tweak things up a little when they are flagging, not an engine in itself.
Meanwhile, here is the BBC's stern, but intriguingly attractive economics wonk, Stephanie Flanders:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/05/a_time_for_calmpanic_delete_as.html
And even she doesn't know which way the Euro is going, but she says it beautifully.
Thank goodness the BBC doesn't (yet) employ beautiful airheads, like CNBC.
(Variation on a very old joke :-) ).
"Frantic selling abates as euro rises
By Jamie Chisholm, Global Markets Commentator
Published: May 21 2010 07:43 | Last updated: May 21 2010 10:57
Friday 10:45 BST. European stock markets are suffering more selling, although signs are emerging that the recent frantic flight from risk that culminated in a 4 per cent tumble for Wall Street overnight is starting to abate.
The FTSE All-World equity index is up 0.1 per cent and commodities are rallying as bargain hunters gamble that the recent financial turmoil, and fiscal troubles in the eurozone, will not derail global growth.
EDITORS CHOICE
Asian markets slide on eurozone worries - May-21
S&P 500 falls most since April 2009 - May-20
The Australian dollar is on a boomerang trajectory - May-20
Lex: The double-dip threat - May-20
The euro soared in Asian trading though it has now given up a big chunk of that advance on hopes the German parliament will vote through the Greek bail-out package, forcing short positions to be covered following weeks of heavy selling.
Meanwhile, one of the markets best gauges of investor risk appetite, the Aussie dollar, is bouncing sharply after taking the kind of battering in the past week normally reserved for the nations Twenty20 cricket team."
So, do we think risk appetite is really coming back, and where is the Aussie heading now?
-Thurs 0700 BST, bounced from below off 150 EMA
-Thurs 1800 punched right through 150 EMA, hesitating at 200 EMA
-Thurs 1900 shot above 200 EMA, not quite reaching 1.26
-Thurs 22-2300 sank below 150 EMA, but then bounced up until
-Friday 0500 when it bounced off the 365 EMA, coming down to the 200 EMA, where it is again hesitating
(~1.2500). It has been below the 150 EMA for most of the recent downtrend, but is currently above it.
Will it come down below it again? (would be about 1.2450 as I write - 09:30 BST)
Meanwhile, this is all getting rather heavy.
Time to turn to Zerohedge for some entertainment:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breathtaking-250-pip-intraday-move-euro-central-banks-try-kill-eur-shorts-goldman-loses-more
When did he say that? Last I remember him saying we'd need a bounce to around 1.25 for shorts (or words similar to that).
After that, a measure of panic selling may ensue?
"Carry Bloodbath Resumes With Full Blown Liquidations Imminent
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2010 20:22 -0500
"After earlier we saw the decimation of the European currency, it is now Asia's turn where an impressive bloodbath is now raging. The AUDUSD is in freefall, having moved a massive 300 pips from yesterday's high to today's low. At under 50 pips from 0.855, the AUDUSD will likely breach 0.85 at which point the destruction at carry desks will become an epidemic, and full liquidations will soon ensue, coupled with billion dollar margin calls, forcing global asset liquidations at bulge brackets. With the carry collapse pervasive, don't look to futures to stage any miraculous Fed-inspired ramps tonight: Germany may have well called the Fed's bluff. "
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/carry-bloodbath-resumes-full-blown-liquidations-imminent