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montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
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montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 19:31
In Thread: EUR
@Station: Nothing much; ECB hiked by a full 1 percent, the Greeks are all back at work; Gordon Brown has resigned, and Bernanke has fallen out of a helicopter. Other than that, a pretty calm day.

But seriously...


@Radu: Looks to me like your hammer (or pin bar) was just indicating a pullback.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 15:36
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
I like volatility too, as it provides the best trading opportunities.

Certainly been an interesting day on gold, although I don't think it is quite ready for the big sell off that @Lucky is expecting.

Interesting day in Euro and cable also.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 12:37
In Thread: GBP
@Catnip: Thanks for the response; thought-provoking, as ever.

@Forum: More generally on the UK/GBP, Moneyweek is having a blast at QE & central banks:
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/money-morning-central-banks-bubble-01806.aspx

[BTW, I'm not necessarily endorsing their conclusions; interesting analysis though].
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 11:01
In Thread: GBP
@Catnip: Not sure I understand all your points, but what I am saying is that for the UK to enter the Euro, even a reformed Euro, is politically impossible here, however much logic or economic sense might be behind it. Even Clegg, probably the most Euro-friendly leader (and the LibDems have always been the most pro-EU) would not try to go for it (and I doubt if he could get it through if he tried).

If by "vote" you are talking about referendums....well, UK politicians hate referendums. They trust the electorate even less than they trust each other....the electorate might come up with the "wrong" answer, so I don't see one in the foreseeable future. It is simply not on the agenda these days.

Interesting points about bank debt. (Needless to say, not mentioned in the election campaign :) ).

@Dodger: "Club Med" - LOL! :-)))
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 16:52
In Thread: GBP
Wish I could share in that excellent German (not for export) wine you are drinking @Catnip :-)
There is absolutely no way that any of our current politicians would enter the Euro, mark I or mark II.

If you read the UK commentators, they are saying, "yes, we are in the dickens of a mess - don't know how to fill the deficit - but, thank heavens at least we are not in the Euro ....".


But just say, what if: No way we can compete with Germany in industrial/export terms (would be could if we could at least attempt to). If we could pull it off, it would be good, but probably, it would just end in tears, from a UK-centric point of view.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 16:43
In Thread: EUR
Never say never. However, taking the long(ish) view, it has been in a downtrend now for ~5months (give or take some consolidation). It appears to be looking into a black hole.

Previous uptrend lasted about 7 months.

GBP/USD is not that different actually, except for the sharp rally in W13/14.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 14:05
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@Stationdealer: Don't think you are quire right about GBP, if you mean GBP/USD.
It was down around 1.47-48 as recently as early March. Previous lows were Jan & Mar 2009, but that was in the financial meltdown period.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 3, 2010 18:55
In Thread: GBP
I re-entered short from 1.5275 and am holding for now. Probably in too low really though.

Plenty of uncertainty between now and the election result move the pound (in either direction), IMHO, whatever the polls are saying. UK bank exposure to Euro debt (which I think Ashraf mentioned ages ago) has been highlighted to some extent in the media, and could yet add to the sterling "wobbles".
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 3, 2010 16:35
In Thread: Will the Fed Raise Rates in 2010?
An article in yesterday's Observer (Sunday sister paper of The Guardian) said that many economists were predicting a BoE hike before the end of the year. They did not specify the economists. However, the recent RPI figure was surprisingly high. This will be passed, for example, on in turn to a lot of student loans which depend on the RPI, and will have an effect on other things which are index-linked, e.g. public-sector pensions.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 1, 2010 18:31
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@dhussey: It's a tricky one, and I don't know really. But I would say that _if_ it is heading for a downturn, I think this will not be until it gets higher first. It was showing distinct signs of strength towards the end of the week. I think there would need to be some specific catalyst to drive it back down significantly, but I have no idea what that might be.
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