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Posts by "montmorency"
678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
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Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
Having said that, when I close then see it moving further in my direction I am sometimes tempted to chase it. More often than not it's a bad idea. Something I still have to learn.
Ashraf's Twitter caution this afternoon not to chase cable after its 200 pip move down was a well-timed warning against this sort of thing.
http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf07t.pdf?noframes=1
I had previously quoted from memory that EUR/USD and cable were much more traded than EUR/GPB, and thus I could not see that EUR/GBP could be used to manipulate EUR/USD or cable. Rather it is EUR/GBP that is the reed that blows one way or the other in the wind of the other two. I'll repeat the more significant ones here, this for 2007; the numbers are in percent share.
EUR/USD 27
USD/JPY 13
USD/GBP 12
USD/AUD 6
USD/CHF 5
USD/CAD 4
EUR/JPY 2
EUR/GBP 2
EUR/CHF 2
In 2001, EUR/USD was 30 and USD/JPY was 20, so it changes over time. Since then, USD/SEK has come along, at 2% for example. (NOK not shown).
There is supposed to be another report due in 2010.
I myself am surprised that cable is less than half of EUR/USD.
"Weve had to face up to the fact that what is now a Greek problem could turn into a European one, the official said.
Were thinking about what we should do if the crisis spills from Greece into other euro countries. So its more about finding firewalls, containing the problem, than principally about helping the Greeks. He added there were no concrete plans as yet. " [A German government official, Germany being the dominant country in the Eurozone].
So it rather looks to me as though the market has overreacted a little, although as Ashraf says somewhere else, they will have to come up with something concrete at some point. Whether it will be enough to stop the Euro falling further again ....
Looks like I was wrong in my EUR/JPY shorts, although short from here might look better.
Neither set of shorts is looking too clever at the moment, but I think this is a temporary pull-back. There is no EURO-positive news on the horizon that I can see ...
Of course I could be wrong...