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Posts by "montmorency"
678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
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Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
There is a guy on Trade2Win (Mr_Charts.) who exclusively trades US stocks, and describes a very simple short-term method for doing this in his thread there. I'm thinking of giving it a try, in parallel with FX, and commodities. Will probably do the stocks in a separate account to minimise confusion. The style is very different to what I do now with FX and commod. It involves short-term (e.g. ង min) trades taking a chunk out of an established trend. Not scalping though. Very simple in principle. Very profitable in practice, apparently, if you find the right stocks. Combination of fundamentals and technicals (not very technical, really).
It was a case of fools rushing in where angels (or wise men) fear to tread ... :-)
It has taken me nearly 2 years to realise I have to learn more about how the market works, and not just think I can do it all from the chart. Ashraf has been a big part of that.
Thanks for the heads-up on the US/Tehran issue.
Oil may be slightly less volatile, but the direction seems, to use your word, irrational at times. At least there are certain fundamentals that it obeys at certain times, although not all the time. I need to study it more. If I were trading it today, I'd probably short it, to say 71 - 70.75, but I'm not going to. I'll treat that as a paper trade :-)
As for oil, I seem to have had my hands full enough with FX and gold to even think about oil, although of course it's not really something the intermarket trader should ignore. With hindsight, I can now see what a great opportunity there was there in the last few trading days. I should probably paper or demo trade it for while, before committing any money to it, as in the past I've had my fingers burned with it.
Alternatively find a way of trading for very small stakes that you can afford to lose and not worry about it, until you get more experience in this particular field.
Actually, I really am the wrong person to try to answer. As I said, I have traded it with little success, at least this year (and last). I had more luck the year before (2008), but that was because it was in an established trend which I just joined (as an ignoramus...).
I have come to the conclusion that at the moment at least, I have absolutely no idea how to trade EUR/GBP.
I think this is because of its relationship with EUR/USD and GBP/USD (=cable), and where those particular pairs are at the moment.
When the markets change and those pairs change then EUR/GBP will change.
When there is clear Euro-positive news and clear GBP-negative news clearly stated, then things may change
(or vice-versa).
On technical grounds (not that I am a technical expert) I would guess it will be a couple of weeks at least before they get out of that range...
...
but to be honest, your guess is at least as good as mine.
Let me/us know how you get on!
I'm not so good at doing that myself, to be honest, but I know it (usually) makes sense.
Depends also and partly on your style of trading and the particular market.
May I ask this question @Ashraf:
You have been VERY clear about EUR/USD and #gold and the strength of USDX.
There is one thing I am not quite so clear on, and please forgive me if I have missed it:
Are you seeing at this point a longer-timescale target for GBP/USD, aka our old friend cable?
I have a feeling that this is a trickier one, as it partly depends on the "battle" between USD and JPY for the risk-aversion crown, which you have described and explained very well. More than once, you have advised us to treat cable with caution I think, although it is certainly possible to make money out of cable, as I have discovered, very often thanks to your calls.
I've looked at the latest IMTs and I'm not seeing any hints about cable, so I hope you will forgive this question. Situation re: EUR/USD and #gold a lot clearer.
Of course, we can expect a "Monday bounce" as usual, unless the market surprises us.
At the end of the day, we are all dependent on the market.
All the best to you Ashraf, and the traders who follow you.