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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
i think that was the top for now... :)
what's your trailing stop for your E long?
watchin for dip....
holdin E L 3950
usd/chf Sh..9050..swish-can't find correlation with e/$ yet...
a/y L..
yes... expecting pullback at current level.... could see 1 more pop up to 4220/30.... but if 4145 gives way.... it's on it's way to first minor support around 4000/4040.... if 4000 level holds... could see 1 more try higher to 4240/50....
if clear break and close below 4000 level.... it's headed already for a much deeper correction to 3800/3850...
in any case Euro manages to break above 4282 and settles above 4250 level.... next reistance comes in around 4400/4420 level....
i still favor 4250 to cap any further advance on current rally and expect correction back down to 3800/50.... b4 moving higher toward 4500/4600 level....
just added shorts 4195 level....
2 lots short @ 4120... tp 4030
1 lot short @ 4195... tp 3900
are you still holding your posis?
gl/gt
subway...what abt that pullback at 4220, sonny..
In the midst of all the historic events of last week (+14% selloff in Nikkei, first coordinated FX intervention since 2000, Arab State-approved resolution on Libya) some things MUST NOT BE LOST in the noise. Fridays conference by ECBs JC Trichet stating there was "no new message" from the central bank was a reference to the all-important massage he announced on March 4th when he said "an increase in interest rates in the next meeting is possible".
I stated in last week's article (see here)http://bit.ly/ hzMCKX that "as long as major equity indices do not lose more than 6-7% from their year highs and the ECB doesn't depart from its recent hawkish turn, the EURUSD is unlikely to close below $1.36". I take this further and add that any periodic improvement in risk appetite will reward EURUSD back towards 1.4200 onto the major trendline resistance of 1.4250s. Please read the rest of the article for the subtleties surrounding the ECB tightening and whether it would entail the beginning of a hike cycle. Any pullback is seen stabilzing at 1.3930-40s before fresh bids into the April ECB decision.
As for the Japan factor, Trichet did say on Friday Japan will cause him to "think deeply" ahead of the Apri meeting. A rate hike would be IN LINE w rising EURJPY.
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for me... it's quite clear that it's headed higher... my target comes around 9150/9200 level...
would see initial resistance around 8800/8820 level... but once it clears this level... it will be heading above 8950 to 9150/9200 level...... gl/gt