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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
i think Aud wants to go higher.... 4/8 hour still showing momentum is there... break above 1.0202 and i think we'll see 1.0320 level... could see some pullback at current level but as long as 1.0065 holds... see it moving higher.... but if we see 1.0320 level... could be a good short for 200~250 pips....
Ashraf
Rising AUDUSD and falling USDCAD reflect the typical nature of rallying commodity currencies (AUD and CAD) during improving risk appetite (Dow-30 +113, SPX +12). Since AUDCAD remains unable to break 0.99, the bias remains in favour of CAD, thereby siding w/ USDCAD shorts instead of AUDUSD longs during improved risk appetite. I mentioned last week that EURUSD was another preferred pair during any stabilization in risk appetite (see longer article and prior IMTs). With USDX having broken below the key 76 foundation, USDCAD now stands to break below the 0.9770s trendline to retest 0.9720 and possibly 0.9680. Further gains in oil prices would be one (but NOT the only) driver for falling USDCAD.
US existing home sales today and UK CPI tomorrow will be key drivers to FX in the next 24 hours. Stocks also boosted by AT&Ts announcement of a $39 billion deal to acquire T-Mobile USA.
These Intraday Market Thoughts will no longer be available free of charge starting next week when AshrafLaidi.com introduces a new Premium FX Service.
Ashraf
NOK is a commodity currency and just liek AUD and CAD usually falls against USD and JPY. NOK is the currency people go to when risk appetite is up so the converse holds during risk aversion.
I mentioned sev times on twitter and site that EUR is boosted "remarkably so" by ongoing expectations of an ECB rate hike (however one may disagree w that).
See my latest article in home page
Ashraf