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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:
USD
Discuss USD
If BOE and ECB donot hike the rates , DXY how will be effected ?
If so dollar can go to which resistance ?
Thanks
Kam
if drop comes within 16 hours.... the tp comes in around 4020/30 initially... extension below 4000 level could see 3930/50....
gl/gt
Ashraf
How can one best trade a conviction there won't be QE3?
For example, say US NFP comes in TWICE better than expected for TWO months in a row. That would obviously lead to a selloff in fed funds futures (prices go down and implied yield goes up). And when these contracts are incorporated into the formula that determines the CALCULATED PROBABILITY of Fed Funds 1 month, 2 months or 5 months out, you can derive the implied fed funds rate. But say after those stellar jobs reports, US equities enter a 8% correction and housing data go from bad to worse and consumer demand drops, then obviously those calculations will change because market level of fed funds rate would drop and the implied rate into the future could even start calling for rate cuts.
Bottom line: Fed funds futures depend on the data at hand.
Ashraf