Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 7, 2009 2:17
Comments: 60
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

Multi-FX Gold View & Shanghai Reminder

Looking at Gold in various currencies continues to help clarify FX secular strength, while it is time to revisit the Shanghai Composite's monthly chart.
 
123456
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 20:01
Rob, hewson's target was between now and year-end while mine was by year end. big difference between "by year end" and "at year end"

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 19:04
Hi Ashraf,

Regarding your GBP/USD end of year forecast of 1.63 - I presume that means you disagree with Michael Hewson's target of 1.5160, from his analysis that you tweeted earlier today?

Or did you mean 1.53? Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 12:38
Dan, brought it down to 1.63 from 1.67

Ashraf
Dan
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 3:02
Ashraf, what is your end of year GBP/USD forecast? Thx
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 1:02
raulin, that is all true what you said about the sluggish Japanese consumer. did you know many Japanese exporters operated offhsore plants for re-exports, thus actually benefiting from a strong yen? did you know japan has a current account surplus, which will always keep rates low.

Here is a link that you will like ..i posted on my twitter (i post several links on twitter)

Versace quits Japan after 30 yrshttp://bit.ly/2MYBbc


Moe, grateful for your kind words.


Explaining why $EURCHF moves up on Thursdays starting from 4:47 in videohttp://bit.ly/6OIyH


Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 21:48
@Raulin think you hit the proverbial nail on the head there. Long term Japan is screwed...ageing population that won't be able to keep re-financing their astronomical debt at low rates. Last time I was in Tokyo I kept noticing certain ads with a attractive girl on the front. When enquired I was told it was an advert to encourage people to keep buying Japanese debt (supposedly the older generation did it as a matter of national duty, but Gen Y not too keen to invest their money for miniscule returns)
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 21:35
To go back to the Yen ..this is an export dependent economy with a currency too strong. What happens to their GDP? It falls when JPY strengthens. What happens to their debt? It rises.Right now they have to pay interest on debt at 18% of tax revenues.This is NOT a healthy economy. The debt, currently mostly serviced by native Japanese will need to be serviced more and more by foreigners at a very low interest rate that is not attractive to the purchasers so yen has to depreciate or interest rates rise. They have already deflation, negative growth and you want to raise interest rates? SO FALLING YEN IS THE ONLY temporary SOLUTION
Moe
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 18:13
Ashraf,

Hi, just want to say that I respect your calls and analysis very much despite the fact that some times (very few) I do not agree with you or to put it correctly, don't feel comfortable with it. But I have gained a lot of value from just reading your comments and listening to you on the TV.

It is always at the end my decision to trade any call based on your analysis and I cannot but extend my atmost gratitude for sparing some of your time and knowledge for our benefit. If someone does not like your analysis then it is his perogative.

keep up the good work and thank you so much for your informative data.

By the way do you plan to make a trip to the UAE soon?

Regards
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 18:03
Veritas, BoJ emergency asset purchase measures expire end of year so lets watch that carefully

CrazyFkr , TG, Thanks.

Volatile, Against what? still weak vs EUR, AUD but coudl boubce back to 1.63 by year end.

quintas, from Reuters..you can have it from Metatrader or any other decent charting package.

raulin, id say in the event of the BoJ, market expectations of a REDUCTION of LIQUIDITY in Q1 would help yen

Ashraf
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 11:49
Have to strongly disagree about BOJ rate hike the Japanese economy is in big time deflation big deficit and no consumer spending and aging population, incendiary time bomb especially on falling equities , no domestic demand ..
Report Reply
123456