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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 7, 2009 2:17
Comments: 60
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Multi-FX Gold View & Shanghai Reminder

Looking at Gold in various currencies continues to help clarify FX secular strength, while it is time to revisit the Shanghai Composite's monthly chart.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 18:38
Rob, if you noticed, Euro has only been rallying dramatically against the fundamentally weak USD and GBP while not doing much against others. Even against the yen. As you can see from the long term eurchf chart, the market WANTS TO GO DOWN and SNB is the only force (successful) to boost it. in the long term i see around 1.47.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 18:05
Hi Ashraf,

Re: your last IMT --- I'm just wondering why EUR/CHF hasn't been going dramatically higher given the rise in risk appetite. Even since March, it's only been as high as about 1.5400 or so. Shouldn't fundamentals be taking this pair much higher? Do you have a mid/long-term target for this pair? Thanks a bunch!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 12:14
Dan, as i said in twitter last week, the BRL tax is shurting the barn after the horse ran. if anything, wait for BRL retracement to buy some more. EM currencies are notorious for pullingback fatser than G10 but as we all know they rebound back quicker and BRZLN fundamentals are looking stronger.

Ashraf
Dan
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 1:54
Ashraf, does the imposition of new tax make you less bullish on BRL? What's your end of year target on USD/BRL? Also, what are your thoughts on the likelihood of CNY appreciation? Thx
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 19:35
markets uses fundamentals to explain moves after the fact ...the market heavily short g/u and g/u oversold we appear to have completed wave 3 with potential upside targets 1.6020 and 1.6130 but as always with g/u watch for stalling .best not to trade 2 weak currencies against each other and watch euro/gbp
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 19:11
Rob, see the latest IMT on Bean. the usualy stuff about possible tightening, which is highly unrealistic. As i said on twitter, GBPUSD is notorious for short squeezes and traders have not seen those in a bit. So looking at trend line around 1.6.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 19:04
raulin - I do not use Elliot wave, where does that analysis see this pair going, if you wouldn't mind sharing - thanks
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 19:02
G/U upside nothing to do with fundamentals but everything to do with Elliott waves ..
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 18:55
Does anyone know what was said by BoE Gov. Bean this morning? I'm wondering why GBP got such a large boost? Also, Ashraf, do you see GBP/USD headed to 1.6000? And I presume you still see the downtrend well intact? Yes? Wondering if I'm better off calling it a day with that pair. Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 13, 2009 0:14
Partisan. Ok, good luck

Ashraf
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