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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 16, 2013 19:03
In reply to djellal's post
"Stocks at these levels" don't reflect the real fundamentals.

Stock prices don’t reflect the world as it, not by a long way. Various disasters ahead are well documented, not least for Japan. I have profited enormously this year long the Nikkei and short the yen but that in no way reflects my fundamental opinion for the destiny of Japan, any more than trading long the S&P futures and long the FTSE 100 reflects my opinion of the US and UK disastrous underlying macro economic fundamentals.

Visitors to this forum could be forgiven for getting the impression that AL is inherantly perma bullish the Euro or the US fundamentals and perma bearish the UK fundamentals. The fact is he is only looking at the very short term vicissitudes of economic data to form an opinion on short term trading directions. We have no idea whatsoever on his larger perspective fundamental opinions, if indeed he has any.

The following link gives a reasonable perspectibe imho. This stuff has been well debated these past yrs but it has little to do with the business of short term trading.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/its-just-bluefish


There are many commentators who get carried away by every blip in the eco stats without understanding the larger picture. In short we have screwed ourselves with far too much debt and ponzi scheme economics. The bond markets will utimately strike and when it happens it will happen overnight. There will be no warning.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 23:52
I m drank guys but what i can say is when you have stoks index at these levels markets creates jobs. Managers ceo human ressources People are confidents even if Michigan figure was bad... manager know that they can refinancing themself directly in the markets. So stocks at these levels will help real economy
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 23:41
Another barrier for Fed unemployment target is that significant numbers of boomers at and beyond retirement age are continuing to work because they cannot afford to retire. This has an effect on the labour participation rate of younger folk who are becoming increasingly unemployable--outdated skills---insufficient unskilled jobs available for them.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 22:45
yes i am short cable over the weekend
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 17:55
In reply to DaveO's post
Ah indeed....did anyone think the Fed is about anything else than the sweet spot trading range of the USD? I didn't.
After all the Fed is the legal owner of all dollar bills ever issued...
I played today quite successfully with EURGPB ( long)
always guided by strength meter. I think keeping a position could make another profit in next week.
Merkel will bailout russian oligarchs that is monetize their laundered money into solid Eur bills that could lift EUR while GBP could be downrated by StandardPoors and or Fitch.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 11:54
In reply to djellal's post
I think inflation is the least of Fed worries, deflation is their potential enemy. Check out the velocity of money for signs of inflationary pressures once again. Gold will probably also provide a signal.

Also the US had unemployment near 19% after the bust when taking account of the disenchanted who had given up on finding a job. I am not sure what the real # is now but I imagine that as jobs become easier so more of the disenchanted will add their names back onto the job seeker list.

This will likely slow any move toward the 6.5% unemployment target even with consistently good new jobs #'s each month. Add to this the prospect of immigration increasing once again as jobs become easier and the Fed may well have a long battle ahead to achieve their target.

I am inclined to feel that much of the Fed bla is aimed at controlling the usd within their perceived ideal trading range.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 9:06
money leads to added an artificial increase in consumption. leading to a sharp rise in inflation, I think it is time that the Fed let the market create jobs.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Mar 15, 2013 1:59
Djellal,

That's a very reckless thing to say. "Stopping QE next month"

How do you think they will go to 6.5% unemployment.

They might consider slowing the pace of purchases around June at the latest. But do not confound slowing and stopping altogether.


Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 14, 2013 17:16
AU was also nice trade making daily chart sym at 1.0390 and currency strength chart supporting the move.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 14, 2013 17:10
I don't know about 1.56 George. That would be very contra AL current opinions. I take one day at a time with forex, 3 days max.