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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 20, 2013 10:43
In reply to djellal's post
yes and smacked hand for AL "gambling" the news just prior. His 2 last minute shorts were quickly stopped out.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 20, 2013 10:17
In reply to DaveO's post
BoE Minutes "unwarranted pound drop" if further QE
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 19, 2013 16:35
short gbpnzd there stoploss 1.8400 target 1.8018... coutious with your leverage
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 19, 2013 14:27
cable below 1.51
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 19, 2013 9:26
short cable target 1.4990
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 17, 2013 18:58
In reply to djellal's post
djellal, yes I think I knew what you meant. The conversation was an opportunity to put out a warning to any peeps who are feeling overly secure in these tricky macro economics and markets. I identify you as "old school". None of us can take an intelligent guess at timing for the various disasters that undoubtably lie ahead, given politicians will continue to practice short termism. The entire silly game is supported by "confidence"---which can change quicker than we might like.

George, you have tremendous depth of knowledge and interest but often I struggle with the language. But who I am to critique you when my French language is truly appalling. I think the discussion could get out of hand so we have no time for our charts and our trading lol.

I would never use the two words "great" and "Greenspan" in the same sentence. I regard Greenspan and Brown as having considerable responsibility for the debt getting totally out of control. Bernanke has had the unenviable task of trying to avoid a global financial implosion. Add to that the european common currency experiment has proven a complete disaster causing much pain for many of its members.
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 17, 2013 11:07
could be interesting to buy gbpnzd between the current market level and 1.8170 below with target 1.8400 and stop loss around 1.8130
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
12 years ago
Mar 17, 2013 8:29
Indeed I know that these levels are artifical. What I mean is that " simple investor or simple people" are confidents when they see this kind of level. They never buy stocks on the dip but only on the high. They ignore fundamentals that's why they are confident,they takes loan, they create little company, they create job... and take crisis directly on the face.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Mar 16, 2013 20:51
In reply to Rezz's post
Thanks Rezz, its good to find traders with an interest in the "real" fundamentals. So often one gains the impression many traders have no idea of the risks out there. I always spread margin wide and far using multiple brokers and make regular withrawals.

I will make a point of ordering "end of growth" at the next book order. I try to read most of Mauldins' considerable network of top analysts but there are time limits ! As I see it, the one ray of hope is the current scientific revolution but we can bet the politicians will continue the screw things and run out of time. Short termism in politics an insoluble problem.

The problem with Keynesian economics is we are supposed to raise taxes and reduce debt during the good times. Keynes made that extremely clear, it simply hasn't happened.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
12 years ago
Mar 16, 2013 20:07
Thanks Dave for Mauldin reference which you posted last year and i began to research his thinking on the long supercycles brought on by debt. Mauldin references the work of Harvard's Rogoff and Reinhart and their book "This time is Different" which is also instructive to read (his talks are on youtube).
Another line of thought which may interest you is by Richard Heinberg in his book "end of growth". It talks of fundamental limits to growth caused by the diminishing return on energy (as measured by energy out/in) which is what has powered real GDP growth in the last 200 years. low real growth means stocks should trade much lower, or the dollar needs to devalue. The bankers will try to pump the system but its going to fail and yes one day we will wake up and the bond market would have reacted badly!