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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:
USD
Discuss USD
NO KIDING
PARITY WILL HAVE TO WAIT 2012 13
i am calling now for parity eurusd in future. looking for rebound to 1.38,39,40 for short til 1.00 long term trade. i forsee germany leaving euro for mark and leaving the mess to everbody else because other eu countrys wil not have demand for germanys exports. so germany wil have no reason to play the game any longer. it will be one of the best plays i have ever seen by the germans. similar to china selling to the usa consumers for ages but germany have the exit. fed will b first to increase rates but not for a while.
yes race to the bottom in all currencys euro will arrive first. gold to the moon
any views ashraf, macro also xaron, catnip
i think investors to some extent are now not believing in the dollar rally as fed havent done any recent tighening and greece rescue forming.
Fed is so smart, they are trying to keep credit market and dollar stable. Why would they want to increase their borrowing costs so soon..they just keep the market guessing which is bad for fx traders of course. but on the other hand they want to keep foreign treasury investors happy by preserving the dollars value by threatening to hike any time soon. Also, im sure they would be worried about a run on the dollar as its reservce status could become a potential reality. so they are just trying to have a balance it seems.
Ashraf
Dow can rise more ? if yes where is the resistance accord. to you ?
Having said, USDX may be due for an interim retreat before another 2-3 month rally.
Some interesting patterns developing that maybe similar to 2005.
We shall see.
Ashraf
But I wonder ... what manufacturing is up? Construction is down, Engineering services is down, energy equipment fueled with subsidies ... what is up? Purple pills pharma? Admittedly I have little knowledge of what manufacturing is comprised but my guess is it has something to do with production of some goods of trade that someone else is eager to buy. Is Windows 7 manufactured?