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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:
GBP
Discuss GBP
Ashraf
as long as it doesn't break to new highs this week... expect correction down to 5780/5800 level next week... we could see some big moves for GBP next week...
only break below 5668 would mean rejection and would see GBP fall back to 5450/5500 level....
While you waiting for Ashraf reply I been in England for 66 years. I been bearish our economy since 1998 so perhaps a little biased !
UK is basically bankrupt just like the USA, Jpn and most of EUR. And that's without talking about pension liabilities and demographic nightmares lying just around the corner.
The tax you refer to is our VAT on goods and services bought and sold. The VAT rate was at 17.5% for some years and then after the financial bank crisis they lowered it temporarily to 15%. It will now go back up to 20% taking effect in Jan 2011. This will not help to reduce our inflation in the shorter term but that is not an issue because the whole world will enter a deflationary spiral environment, perhaps lasting several years.
Our new coalition government have pledged radical cuts in public sector and in downsizing government to reduce our deficit. Also they plan to force the long term unemployed back to work but the planned cuts will lead to massive unemployment in the shorter term. Also the UK has a difficult problem controlloing immigration, we pay for our past commonwealth and colonial sins as well as being controlled from Brussells. This places even greater pressure on jobs.
The markets are believing our plans to radically cut the deficit so our credit rating is still AAA. So far the government has been all talk about cutting the deficit but putting it into practice will be a very different matter indeed. The markets will not exercise forbearance forever. We will have to wait and see who are the the comparitive winners and who the comparitive losers in the battle ahead. The entire planet will be the loser once this whole situation has played out. You can blame the banks and corrupt governments for that.
The only good news I see out there is related to what our scientists are doing on a worldwide scale. If anyone manages to salvage this planet it will not be the money spinners or corrupt governments, it will be the scientists.
u will need that for the cocos
when i detect a reversal or continuation i follow the rule of the third, ie, i divide the candle in three parts and when markets is uptrend i enterr at part three top with Stop at limit zone 1/2 and when market is down i enter part three down with stop above at limit zone 1/2.
as for break out i choose to enter above/below the break out with lets say fw ticks spreads and placing a stopat 5 or 10 % according to level of risk.
plus i use a lot EW and rsi
1- get in when its broken whatever is the time frame (the problem here that the price could pull back)
2 - wait for back testing "and this what i prefer but i miss allot of opportunities with this method look to the EUR/CAD broke triangle and didnt back test it "
3 - get in when candle close above the broken area "if the broken area is in daily wait until one daily candle close above the broken area"
Which one everyone prefer here and what is the best one Mr Ashraf use?
thanks guys