Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 18, 2008 3:15
Comments: 1310
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 21:07
@said, i don;t understand are u saying usdcad going to 1.0550 befor we head back to 1.07-08..or 1stop is 1.0550 the lower...thanks for ur input
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 21:00
thanks for the advice pipped.i;ll settle down, im sure ashraf targets will prevail an all will be fine,mayb i should look at this as a chance to pik up some cheap usdcad an lock in some profits on my crude contracts an crude stocks(gold stocks) before markets tumble down,i usually never use stops but today i decided to close out that 1 position an i know how fast things can change an it proved to be a bad call..can;t win everytime an i been in worst situation to end up locking in nice profits...ashraf is a very smart man an hes very confident that eur is goin to 1.32(usdcad 1.0900+)so i;ll wait before i add more..again thanks piped i only have ashraf an the board help me digest all the data out there..lol have a nice night
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 20:58
Chloe-the usd/cad pair trades on sentimen, and oil prices. Clearly, the global economic recovery, save China, is not what equity analysts made it out to be in order to move stocks higher. And now that the largest bastion of growth, China, is tightening things up to slow things down, what do you think that will do to the price pressures on oil?

Exactly, consolidate the 82-73 move, then move lower. Lower is positive for usd/cad pair.

However, the one caveat is the economy/deficit of Canada is in better shape that the U.S., but this is more of a medium to long term story.

In the short term, usd/cad will move with oil, and what would cause oil to go up? Not lower stck prices and tightening in China.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 20:46
@CHLOE

dont expect usdcad back at 1.07-08
my target is 10548 then a pullback
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 20:35
Chloe, remember-things change quickly in the fOREX world. Again, back to eur/gbp. Eur is only up because of the 125 pips GOLDman Sachs has bid up eur/gbp in anticipation of the Summit. They are frontrunning euro leading into an event, as they frontran sterling into the now famous, "BUY at 1.6450" report the released just three weeks ago.

So euro remains bid, while sterling has a soft tone to it.

Remember, things change quickly..
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 20:31
Chloe, I gave you my plan. Calm down, you are "chasing" trades which is a tough way to go.

When get frustrated, what I do is refrain from placing market orders as these are usually done on emotion (chasing). Try getting a way for a few hours, using only limits and stops. This cuts out the emotion.

Also, read the "tea leaves" as to what Ashraf is saying. Like my eur/gbp position. Both currencies are trash, however one has to be worse than the other, lol. Goldman Sachs has been bidding eur/gbp all week to frontrun the Summit they knew about before mostothers knew. I can only suspect eur.gbp will remain bid until up-to the Summut, then it will reverse as the eur gets sold again.
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 20:20
hi ashraf,i must appoligize for my behavior..just a bad day...is it possible to get ur maximum downside for the cad( is 1.0250 possible) before we head to the 1.0800 or higher..need your help befor i buy more positions..all the best an again i appoligize(any1 can comment)
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 19:55
unbeleivable, man i just can;t win i go from having a short position ,then closing it to go long now im losing on that ,only to hear 1.0600 no longer support an were goin into 1.0550..lol i loss or miss out on more pips than i actually make...thanks for the help pipped
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 19:46
Regarding usd/cad, it will get to 1.08 and north of that. I will go long my first units immeiately after 5 pm NYT, and put in some open orders to go long at 1.0577 and 1.0542 also. I am hoping GOLDman Sachs dies theirthing and goose the spoos to run eur and aussie higher, driving usd.cad lower.

BTW, listen to Ashraf's latest youtube. He talks of additional tightening from the Chinese. This will adversely effect gold, aussie, kiwi and cad, and may be the catalyst we are looking for in usd.cad.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 10, 2010 19:43
Chloe-I actually closed my long usd/cad position at 1.0697. I had an order to reopen at 1.0618 which would have been filled had I not cancelled it by accident, lol.

I don;t like to establish new positions this close to the US equity close (1-1/2 hours), especially shorting any of the "carry trade" pairs as today (Wednesday in No America) there is a three-day rollover interest rate differential premium at 5 pm NYT and the aussie et al have been known to run up leading into this.

I am basically flat except for a small short position in eur.gbp (which is underwater). I am waiting for the reults from tomorrows Summit before I open new positions.

Since I do not monitor FX 24 hours a day, I have placing sell orders for euro, aussie and gold just below yesterday's highs for those pairs and gold.
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