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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jan 27, 2013 20:48
Looking at UJ chart one might think 150 easy over the months ahead.

I have fond memories of Japs for doing business. Back in the 80's early 90's I was manufacturing/exporting high performance race engines. The Japs were my favourite customers for straight business, honourable and very polite gentlemen. In those days they used to copy everything from UK, then they became top quality engineers in their own right. Where did we go wrong in the UK ? Answer-- Maggie Thatcher dreadie.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
Jan 26, 2013 21:25
In reply to cat0nip's post
but western world and jap used to make high value added products, china will keep make low value added products. and JPY not cheap compare to 2007/8.

but soros said currency war, then suppose i should believe it?

back to fundi, jap debt problem...i made my assumption, if jap can weaken JPY further, then no debt problem; vice versa. thus, no matter what happens, JPY weakness for sure.

cat, say something about currency war?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Jan 26, 2013 11:15
In reply to DaveO's post
Kyle Bass ignores the implications of JPY devaluation.
Could well be that we'll see more weakness of JPY vs majors but will be a bumpy road. Even if a cheap JPY fosters exports of made in Japan that is not what the global economy wants. The US, the UK and desperately the Ezone economies all need to raise exports.
And China economy still 100% export dependend. Thus a cheaper JPY will yield more carry trade. And there is more, namely Japan is biggest holder of US debt. China is biggest holder of Japan debt ( outside Japan). For a short time I went long JPY vs GBP and EUR. Further long CAD vs USD. In general BOJ easing will hit Ezone harder then any other economy.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jan 19, 2013 20:38
Kyle Bass and the time bomb ticking now, "The bug in search of a windshield" (JM)

Also interesting comments re no positions in China cos can't believe their #'s. Yes yes I know, but this guy positions long term.
http://kylebassblog.blogspot.co.uk/
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jan 13, 2013 13:36
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-13/japan-s-abe-says-he-ll-seek-bold-leader-to-head-central-bank.html

What's the betting his selection will be another ex GS man ?
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jan 10, 2013 0:48
I see the EJ is now on its 200WMA, might explain all the sideways action this month. Its tried to break through coupla times and failed. I guess we have to await a UJ correction.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jan 9, 2013 20:28
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
very powerful move up following Abe. When do you expect a more meaningful retracement Ashraf ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 9, 2013 18:20
Forget the 200-week moving average. USDJPY is now creeping up above its 55-month moving average for the 1st time in 5 years as the yen sustains more damage across the board following the latest indications that BoJ will be forced to double its CPI target to 2.0% . The downward impact on the yen has already been prominent. But once JGB yields transition from making their usual short-lived into a full-fledged recovery, markets can talk about “this time is different” for Japanese equities and currency. Unfortunately, both of last night's new USDJPY Premium longs were unfilled missed by 10 and 30 pips respectively before the pair hit the projected targets of 88.70.

Access to these Premium trades is below.

http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/a-little-trade-diversification


Ashraf


Ashraf
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
Dec 20, 2012 20:58
nzdjpy audjpy back to yesterday close level.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Dec 20, 2012 13:35
In reply to DaveO's post
Face it markets reaction initially to BOJ meeting was disappointment. Shirakawa put another JPY 10 bln asset buying adding to JPY 76 trn. Not a big QE 9..10..11...dunno. But no mention of rising inflation target. Abe must first install a new BOJ CEO because BOJ is independent.
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