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EURCHF HITS FRESH RECORD LOWS at 1.2936 less than a day after SNB president said the cenbank is ready to intervene again. There are a few obstacles to any durable bounce in EURCHF; i) the Swiss franc is strong to the extent of dragging the rising USD down to 8-month lows at 1.0230. Chartists must...

The BOJ OPTED FOR easing than actual FX intervention, via expanding its 6-month fixed rate lending facility to 30 trln yen from 20 trln yen. The yen rose as a result of the confirmed absence of intervention. See previous IMT explaining why I continue to see no yen-selling intervention. Yen gained...

DON'T CONFUSE INTERVENTION WITH QE in the case of Japan. Japan's Fin Min Noda made it clear last week that any yen intervention would make little difference and that chances of US stepping in were "zero". So Japan is now moving in the way of further QE as was seen in December when the BoJ's fresh...

US Q2 GDP REVISED down to 1.6% (vs. exp 1.4%) from advanced 2.4% reading, triggering a relief rally in equities and BROAD YEN SELLOFF, especially since the Japanese currency has been already hit by: i) fresh political fallout in Japan and ; ii) escalating signals of a looming stimulus package...

WHEN MARKETS TAKE A BREAK from the recent selloff, FX traders pick among USD, JPY and CHF as the safe haven currencies to sell. JPY is hit hardest on a combination of a bounce in Asia and European futures after the Jpns govt urged the Bank of Japan to ease the yen as part of an upcoming stimulus...

More disappointing US housing figures are unlikely to further boost USD on risk aversion because (i) prolonged US data deterioration bolsters the case for a fresh asset pruchases from the Fed; and (ii) of the latest upside surprise in German August IFO survey. While the latest 3-year high in...

JAPAN & GERMANY in the spot light, with the Japanese making more ineffective talk regarding the yen and German Aug IFO due at 8 am GMT. More on IFO below. Talk that the the BoJ may hold an extraordinary meeting to consider additional monetary easing is not helping to weaken the yen, while Japan...

YENs TRADE-WEIGHTED INDEX http://chart.ly/4dt85t the chart in the link is Deutsche Banks JPY Traded-Weighted Index, showing the currency testing the highs of January 2009. Despite the similarity of the price pattern with Jan 2009, there are differences. GLOBAL BOND YIELDS TODAY are dragged by a...

More yen weakness emerges as the Bank of Japan doubles its 3-month lending facility to Yen 20 trillion. Although the amount was within market expectations, the MoF has made its intentions clear to battle deflation and fight excessive yen strength. USDJPY is still seen breaking 91 and onto 92 w/in...

FOMC kept all rates unchanged, while Kansas Fed's Hoenig remained the sole dissenter against the view of exceptionally low federal funds rate for an extended period? The knee-jerk reaction was for the USD to drop (after low rates mantra was kept), but equities are unable to return to the session...

JPY weakness broadens amid expectations that Wednesdays announcement from the Bank of Japan will renew the case for quantitative easing. Reports that Japanese FinMin Kan would use FX reserves to fund DPJ programs were later denied but some sources say there may be some truth to them. USD weakness....

In a year that will end dramatically different than it began, the US Dollar emerged as a focal point amongst global investors. In the final days of 2009 there is a renewed sense of optimism and hope for continued economic recovery, a far cry from investor's nervousness and skepticism that...

Time for US dollar to regain some composure, especially against the sterling, whose 2010 fortunes for the year appear dismal at best....

YEN & DOLLAR TAKE TURNS: As reports of more possible action from the BoJ filter through the markets, USD benefits from the latest dosage of risk aversion. We hate to sound like a broken record on the SP500's inability to break above 1120, but the latest data disappointment on services industries...

WATCH HOW JPY holds off most currencies, preventing them from regaining their earlier session highs, despite rebounding risk appetite and higher oil. AUDJPY unable to regain 80.40s despite AUDUSD hitting 0.9260s is among the many examples translating into renewed pullback in USDJPY. This confirms...

The RBA raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75% and shows no signs of stopping next year. The fact that the RBA still deems its tightening process a stimulus-reducing operation, suggests that as much as 125-bps of tightening could be added next year, Although the BoJ announced fresh liquidity measures to...

The rift between Japans MoF and BoJ we mentioned in Friday's article is resurfacing as the finance ministry pressures the central bank on further easing monetary policy. The yen lost ground in early EU trading after Japan's strategy minister Kan says govt agrees on measures to stop the yen rise....

Yen strength still eclipsing USD rebounds during risk aversion. while gold's ascent is better gauged against currencies other than the US dollar....

Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD....

Yen regaining some ground after the BoJ voted to stop buying corporate debt by end of year. Decline in Jpns unemployment for second straight month prompted the Bank to vote in favour of withdrawing some liquidity. Nikkei futures back below 10K, Dow futures -21 pts while S&P500 futures -2.6 to...

Although GBPJPY struggles to regain the 148.60s level (38% retracement of the 163-139.70 decline), weekly oscillators (stochastics, MACD) are showing improved prospects for the pair, suggesting extended upside towards 150.80. Nonetheless, the daily oscillators suggest that 146.80 could emerge...

The Intel-driven rally in world equities and risk currencies continues to damage the US currency, as EURUSD regains $1.49 and GBPUSD hits $1.60. JP Morgans earnings are due at about 11:00am GMT expected +$0.49 per share from previous +$0.11. Cable looks to break above the 4-week trend line...

Oil sheds +$1.00 despite an unexpected drawdown of 1.0 mln barrels in EIA crude inventories, as USD gains across the board. Chatter of a possible collaborative effort by the G20 to talk up the US currency as well as an actual intervention by the BoJare doing the rounds. The White House confirms a...

Looking at Gold in various currencies continues to help clarify FX secular strength, while it is time to revisit the Shanghai Composite's monthly chart. ...

Markets await UK Aug retail sales (8:30 GMT) exp +0.1% from +0.4%, and y/y exp +2.7% from 3.3%. GBP strength vs. USD is not reflected against EUR and JPY. Better than exp figures could retest the 1.6580 TL resistance from Fridays highs and onto $1.6630s. UNUSUALLY YEN-POSITIVE comments were issue...

SUNDAY's JAPANESE ELECTION is widely expected to usher in a new party in power--Democratic Party (DPJ), ending the 54-yr domination of the incumbent & scandal-ridden Liberal Democratic Party. DPJ is known to respect the central bank's independence more than the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. In...

Last month we looked at cyclical lows in USDPY and how they . . . helped us predict the 91.75 low. Today, we examine the cyclical peaks in the pair. Despite last weeks aggressive rebound in USDJPY to...

Dollar extends selloff and equities rally as Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoC simultaneously announce extending their swap lines with one another until FEB 1st. Fed extends its liquidity injection facilities. USDCAD supported at 1.1510, Cable capped at 1.6420. ......

Gold rally remains intact. Each of the last two sell-offs (Nov and Jan) were limited to 10% declines before the uptrend extend ahead. Also since Nov, gold never fell below its 50-day MA (purple line). Finally, the latest retreat remains within the upward channel, suggesting support remains...

Despite another big rate cut, Aussie seen carrying prolonged gains along with further pullback in the VIX....