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  • Intraday Market Thought: The Centre can't Hold

    by Adam Button | May 28, 2019 17:38
    The Centre can't Hold Chart Taking a break from the US-China trade war, the nationalist streak in EU....Both equity indices trades in the Premium Insights remain open and the....CFTC positioning showed a late shift into GBP shorts...It's a slow slow start to the week with the UK and US on holiday Monday so....This is traditionally a forgotten vote in markets but it took on special....Turnout surged to hit 50% for the first time in at least 20 years...The short-term story is that the grand coalition of the centre-left and centre-....A surprise is that it wasn't because of a swing to nationalists but because....In the short-term, this will leave EU parliament less effective and more....That's a small negative for the limited growth levers that the EU can....Yet, the market will quickly move on...The long-term is the more interesting development as these results crystalize....What looked like a right-wing shift in parts of the world a few years ago is....The message is especially stark in the UK where another vote shows support....Nigel Farage won a seat for the Brexit party and his comments afterwards were....Massive message here...The Labour and Conservative parties could learn a huge lesson tonight but I....He wants the lesson to be about Brexit but it's really about wanting change...Voters might not yet be sure of what they want but they're looking for....For more details on Ashraf's take on GBPUSD, please see Friday's piece....Another trend is the rise of green parties...If mainstream parties can't deliver progress then some voters are....This is a trend that market participants must watch extremely closely...Many environmentals leaders are practical but others are dogmatic and....Today Trump is using national security as a justification for tariffs but we....It may be no coincidence that Bitcoin is back at a one-year high at $8940...The same dissatisfaction with the status quo is a part of the financial system....At the same time , tech, pot and fake meat companies are reaching lofty....The lesson is that everywhere people are looking for something to believe in...Ultimately, the fundamentals are what determines winners and losers but at the....There's no sense fighting it...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -101K vs -95K prior...GBP -26K vs -3K prior...JPY -55K vs -62K prior...CHF -37K vs -40K prior...CAD -42K vs -48K prior...AUD -66K vs -66K prior...NZD -11K vs -11K prior....The sudden jump in GBP sales is a red flag...Specs have been wrong-footed repeatedly and piling into shorts in the pound at....May was a thorn in the side of the pound for months but the political risks are....Another interesting one is the Australian dollar...Scott Morrison's surprise win led to some short covering this week but it..

  • Intraday Market Thought: High Frequency Trade War

    by Adam Button | Aug 15, 2019 15:05
    High Frequency Trade War Chart The last 12 hours have seen more swings and reversals than in any recent 12....Just as markets were licking their wounds after Wednesday's slump (800-....2 hours later, markets erased all of the morning's losses with JPY losing....Markets pushed further higher after US retail sales posted their biggest rise....US industrial production contracted unexpectedly...Ashraf's closed the Premium DOW30 short 700-pt gain, before opening a new....There are 2 existing trades currently open...Separately, EUR sells off ater ECB remarks...More below...بين الداو، النفط و الإسترليني(فيديو للمشتركين جاهز الآن)....All of this is a fresh reminder why traders must stay relatively small in....Wednesday's violent sell-off was all about the spread between 2-year and 10-....It was triggered Wednesday in the US, UK as well as Canada as a massive bid....The US 30-year yield fell 15 basis points below 2...0% for the first time on record...It led to 2-3% declines in equities in North America and Europe...The damage wasn't quite as dramatic in FX as USD/JPY sank 80 pips and didn&....Commodity currencies were hit a bit harder but not enough to break the....It may only be a matter of time...At turning points in the economy sentiment can be as important as hard....The relentless trade war headlines are sure to take a bite out of business....Euro Falls on Rehn....EURUSD broke below its 2-week range, shedding half a cent on dovish comments....The comments send a reminder of the ECB's counterweight to any Fed easing...Meanwhile, President Trump has taken to relentless criticism of the Federal....He attacked Powell on four separate occasions Wednesday and his deputies did....The Washington Post reported that it's part of a strategy to prop up the....We see it as more of a sign that the President can't stomach a deep fall....In this week's English and Arabic videos for Premium members, Ashraf....1...Will equity indices return to the June lows or stabilise at the Aug 5 low?....2...If the June lows are to be seen, how high could the bounce be?....3...What are the trading implications and key levels for USDJPY, gold, oil and..

  • Premium: Between Yellen & Carney

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 11, 2014 13:00
    We issued 2 new longs in USDJPY ahead of Yellen's testimony and lowered the....2 charts on USDJPY are issued...AUDCAD, USDCAD and gold remain in progress, while EURUSD and AUDJPy were....EURUSD will be revisited after markets play out Yellen's testimony and Q&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Webinar Tonight

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 6, 2014 19:52
    Ashraf's Webinar with Fari Hamzei And George Cavaligos starts at 16:00 ET,....Registration link   Covering Friday's release of the US and....Today's calls include 2 trades on AUDUSD and AUDNZD with 3 relevant charts.

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP volatility heightened by data & Labour lead

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 10, 2015 17:26
    Sterling's 1-month option volatility vs the US dollar –a reflection of....Here's what's next?..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Look beyond Fed Minutes into Yellen’s speech

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 20, 2015 17:54
    Look beyond Fed Minutes into Yellen’s speech Chart The ensuing juncture between the resurging US dollar against the shaky....Full charts & analysis..

  • Hot-Chart: Clinton-Trump Spread at 3 Week Lows

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 31, 2016 14:39
    Clinton-Trump Spread at 3 Week Lows Chart Clinton's lead over Trump in opinion polls hit a 3-week low after the FBI....The late Friday selloff in USD and equities was noticeable...Although the chart shows polls by Real Clear Politics, several polls, such as....Reports of New Hampshire polls showing a 2-pt lead for Trump...The positive relationship between Clinton's eroding lead and falling..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Clinton-Trump Spread Hit Further

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 31, 2016 15:14
    Clinton-Trump Spread Hit Further Chart Clinton's lead over Trump in opinion polls hit a 3-week low after the FBI....The late Friday selloff in USD and equities was noticeable...Although the chart shows polls by Real Clear Politics, several polls, such as....Reports of New Hampshire polls showing a 2-pt lead for Trump...The positive relationship between Clinton's eroding lead and falling..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin & Ethereum Webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2017 13:42
    Bitcoin & Ethereum Webinar Chart On Jul 4th webinar, when Bitcoin traded at $2590, I mentioned the technical and....12 days later, Bitcoin fell to $1800...nbsp;  Today's price is at $2540, down $400 over the last 2 days....Find out why & what's ahead in Monday's webinar.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Wednesday Webinar with Ashraf Laidi

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2017 9:53
    Wednesday Webinar with Ashraf Laidi Chart In case you cannot attend Thursday's London seminar, Ashraf is holding a....Click here for registration.
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