EURUSD 1.1851 |
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كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
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"France and Holland may stick with Germans "
No. No way. France is a club Med country as well. One cannot compare France to Germany. French and German are too different.
Our famous poet Jean De Lafontaine (1621-1695) wrote :
The Cicada, having sung
All summer long,
Found herself wanting
When the north wind came.
Not a single morsel
Of fly or tiny worm.
She went begging for food
To her neighbour the Ant,
Asking her to lend her
Just a few grains to get by
Until the next season.
I will pay you back, she said,
Before August, animal's honor,
Interest and principal
The Ant is no lender
This is the least of her faults.
What were you doing during the warm days?
She said to this borrower.
Night and day no matter what
I was singing, like it or not.
You were singing? I'm very glad
Very well, start dancing now.
In fact, the public debt in those countries is far higher than US. So, in my humble opinion, it is not accurate to compare the US public debt with European countries. Also, one cannot compare a state loaded with debt like California with a country like France (although the GDP is very close).
In one hand California can raise taxes or implement VAT, in the other hand, France has already 20% of VAT and has one of most expensive tax rate per capita in the world . There is no room for tax hike in France and in the PIGS. And if they do so, the GDP will collapse. If you add the real estate bubble in France, which has not burst so far, you have a pretty ugly picture looming in the months to come.
The situation is also far worse in Europe than US when it comes to demography. The actual birth rate is declining among native Europeans. So that the declining workforce is actually underpinned with immigrants with low skill level and high difficulties to incorporate. Not to mention the incrising risk of riots and religious conflicts in the suburbs.
I can tell you from the inside that Europe has no option but fail.
On the other hand, Club Med countries cannot exit without collapsing.
Just imagine one country announcing theyll leave the euro, what would happen? As soon as theyd do that, all the money, deposits, cash, equity available would leave the country as well. The country would be bankrupt immediately.
Theres no single solution thats flawless and acceptable. If Germany exits, then Euro will go down, but for German it will be difficult too. As soon as the news of a German exit leaks the euro monetary mass available in Germany will seek a safe haven too (gold or dollar). Then when the new deutschmark will be on the FX market with a public exchange rate, that money will come back and the DM will rise dramatically.