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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Some media reports say local government investment agencies owe 6 trillion yuan (US$880 billion) to state banks.
Thus should one expect UST yield to raise as $880 bln of buying power falls off ?
Business | Banking
2010-5-28
THE State Council, or China's Cabinet, ordered a review yesterday of investment agencies run by local governments amid warnings that Chinese banks might face problems if they cannot repay multibillion-dollar loans. ...
Read more:http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/list.asp?id=8&type=Business#ixzz0pAJvM0Pp
Hey cat! I said that just as a light note, and only in theory mate! Hey read this article you may find it interesting.
Imo it is not that positive that one doesn't have to worry about inflation. Inflation is curable but deflation is lethal.
Do not forget NFP next week we will see markets in high range before jobs days and fingers crossed if the data is bad according to what i have been saying for the last 3 months data seems to be flawed, and if im lucky we will see weak US jobs figures and fundamentally that will leave room for Aussie and other weighted currencies to move higher for the month.
In case we do see jobs growing don't get all excited and jittery or start betting your life on it, as it will only last for a month till US debt shows early signs of extensions beyond measures, I'm expecting end of June all this will be over for near term market shift to take shape.
CATNIP in a earlier post have posted a Daily telegraph's article which got allot of people pulling double dip game face on M3 plunging to at fastest rates and the scares effect of liquidity will play a huge role in deflation deep with in the states of America where most are already going bust. The public exposure to debt will rise extremely, as government will have no choice but to extend duration on loan repayments, taxation and unemployment will rise, you would certainly not see interest rate rising within the next 2 year at-least, QE can only be implemented if a further call to cut rates is in the play book and few more things my mind can not recollect at the time. The only positive take on this is that US won't have to worry about either inflation or the Fed tightening significantly any time soon.
Fed has not looked at M3 in yearsNot sure they are going to start now it was banned by the Bush administration. I'm sure you are getting more than you bargained for.
Any suggestions of major resistance for AUDUSD to take it back down once this BIG bounce falls apart - even though that they may be weeks to months. Thanks - thinking 85.50 myself, but 87 doesn't seem far either. Thanks