GBP

took partly profit on cable short @15166 but a big enough position from entry 15206 remains

This reminds me of a poem I thought I'd share here........

The Road Not Taken
Robert Frost
(1874-1963)



Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth.

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same.

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.


Robert Frost

no matter what I stay short on GBP

Treasuries could be forming an interim top; if 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes fail to make a new high this week aggressive traders could get short with stops above the recent highs. As it stands now clients are buying dips in the Loonie and have short exposure in the Swissie.


As of this post August is running into resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $74.50 on oil. On higher trade tomorrow we will have some bullish suggestions, if this serves to be an interim bottom we should see a fairly swift $3-5 move north from here. With out a dramatic fundamental shift or significant hurricane activity we expect to see a $70-80 range in the coming weeks. Natural gas gave up 1.64% today failing to get thru the trend line that has capped rallies the last four sessions. Remain long futures as long $4.50 supports in August. We prefer purchasing October 50 cent call spreads. Indices are higher by 3% as of this post and though we initial I know I said I would be a seller in the S&P at current levels but I pulled orders back thinking we could be a seller at higher levels. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is in the books with the September S&P trading above 1154. A 50% carries prices to 1066 and 61.8% would lift us to 1078. Now the market has our attention but after reading various newsletters and talking to some seasoned traders I would not rule out a sale above 1100 in the coming weeks..stay tuned....

Naa...GBP is not strong we have kind of risk on mode. Could be US stocks re-enter irrational exuberance mode aiding more risk on Then indeed as JPY and USD weaken eur usd will cross 127 first then heading for 131 and cable may cross 153 ... yet UST 10 y is still below 3% and there is no USD selloff at all. Thus despite of stock markets esp. $BKX risk aversion persists in currency markets