Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 18, 2008 3:15
Comments: 1310
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 22:10
@MONT- I amde a mint shorting Gold. Closed at 1106.8. Where do we get back in again? Into 1114? Ashraf says 1090 just around the corner and I don't want to miss, because when Gold falls, it
smashes through those targets!
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 22:07
Yes, I have given up on USD/JPY, at least for the time being. Similarly EUR/GBP. Still, the markets may, and probably will change, and they will become tradeable again. Just made me some pips shorting Gold. phew, thought the thing was never going to fall. A few less on cable, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY didn't fall quite as I'd hoped after placing shorts yesterday, but some came home eventually. I can wait for the others.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 21:17
@ealman-I forgot to mention repatriation by the Japanase multinationals also affects USD/JPY prices. This tends to occur in the Tokyo session, typically between 7:00 pm and 11 pm NYT.

Hope this helps.

USD?JPY can be very frustrating to trade, with sharp moves in a short period of time, then seemingly nothing for hours on end.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 21:00
@Eelman-that is an Ashraf question.

USDJPY goes up for a few reasons. The main one I believe is a rise in the 10 YR Treasury yield. However, the market is also believing the U.S. will raise rates, or at least start withdrawing liquidity, before Japan. I think this is the reason for todays rise.

It also has tended to track with the equity markets and risk appetite. As risk appetite has risen, so has USDJPY. In saying that, we could expect USDJPY to decline if equities falter (which the PPT will not permit at the moment). As equities sell off, that money tends to buy bonds which brings the 10 YR Treasury yields lower and hence USDJPY decline.

Some other issues to deal with when playing yen crosses are Japanese intervention and jawboning to weaken jpy if it rises to quickly or too much, resulting in a rise in the JPY crosses (as we have seen the SNB do three times in the past month with CHF).
Eelman
Maine, United States
Posts: 93
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 20:26
Pipped... that must have been Joe Terranova. I remember him recently saying you must have exposure to oil. The next day it dropped from 77 to 73, the biggest % drop in one trading session ever!
Peggy
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 20:21
Question for Pipped: Do you think this right here is a good area to short USDJPY? Or are the Goldman boys going to clean me out again?
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 20:09
Just heard one of the paid pimps on CNBC Fast Money pounding the table that Oil is going to 90, not 60.
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 20:05
hey pipedoff,what u doing with the usdcad?looks like 1.0400 is holding,crude inventories out tomor mayb theres a bit more pressure ..possib retest of 1.0400???gl thanks
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:59
BTW chloe-you getting a kick out of the PPT today not permitting stock indices to be red all day, even with the transports and utilities red all day?

The weapon of choice the PPT used today was bidding USD/JPY. The PPT is quite resourceful. Even a day when Gold and aussie and kiwi are red, and european trash sterling and euro got bashed, the PPT says stocks MUST remain green. So if we can't utilize our customary resources, we'll simply bid th yen crosses higher to deceive the public into thinking all's well with the jobless recovery.

I know, i know - USDJPY is being bid up because spreads on yields is widening.

But if stocks were permitted to go red, then USDJPY and the other yen crosses would get crushed
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:53
Congrat Chloe. I made BANK on GBPUSD short, closing at what so far is within seven pips of the low for the day. Of course, knowing cable, it will rise 150 pips very shortly, lol!

I closed EUR/USD short a bit early. However, in these markets, cannot really complain.

If you go long euro for a bounce, you are on your own, lol! It is a difficult propsosition going countertrend to an impulsive move and trying to scalp on a consolidation.

BTW, have you heard or read any WEATHERMEN ANALYSTS telling us euro is headed lower? Just yesterday they were telling me 1.3850, then 1.4000.

Congrats again on taking some money from the Cable Cartel, lol! They are a tough gamg to fleece.