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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 24, 2011 19:24
This is a fundamentals discussion Subz. Please offer up your fundamental reasoning :-)
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Jul 23, 2011 2:21
no matter how i see it...I can only imagine USDx to drift lower in coming months... break of 73.506 would target 71 initially then see it moving lower to 67... unless we see a dramatic recovery back above 78 level and more importantly 81.50 level....
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 21:42
I know you understand it all Cat, the link was for everyone else :-) And there are choices to be made, all bad choices :-)
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 21:28
Yep. I expected Portugal to queue up about 2 weeks ago.... GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports
explains very well why austerity makes it all worse. C is consumption....won't go up that much
on austerity ...G is government spending...won't go up... I is investment..who's gonna invest in austerity...ah, Net exports is key, it is exports-imports so let imports approach 0 then net exports go up. Yeah. There is only one thing that helps: workload must be withdrawn from eastern europe even from Asia, and brought to the PIGS. There is no other choice. Productivity.
But of course Germany and France balk at that. So they have to pay , the difference in productivity becomes then smaller arithmetically. But Schauble can hardly count up to 3 so arithmetcis... not quite his strengths.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 21:10
In his eloquent letter, Papandreou boldly stated that, in essence, Greece is no longer prepared to make further concessions and will thus blow up Europe's financial system if it is subjected to any more pressure. In other words, it is now time for all additional concessions to come from the side of Germany, the ECB and the EU. The willingness of Papandreou to speak so boldly is hugely important since it marks a recognition by the debtors that they now have the whip-hand in these negotiations. The Greeks (and Irish) for some reason failed to realize their power last year, but they do now. This transforms the balance of power in the negotiations. As a result, Germany and the ECB have reached the moment of truth either they comply with the debtor countries' demands or they abandon the euro. This ultimatum probably helps explain why the euro has been so weak and why it should be heading even lower.
http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/back-to-the-basics

This week's letter from JM touches upon europe but focuses mainly upon US debt and thoroughly explains GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports, explaining all the ramifications of playing with this fundamental equation. This is somehing he has written about many times before leading up to the financial crisis. This week puts everything into current context. Recommended reading !
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 18:06
Hey Caters, a trader just passed me this site which I never seen before, fascinating watching the US debt grow in real time :-(((
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

As for China local debt I'm sure you are right the official # will be understated.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 16:48
China Daily writes ( not so new)
Liu Jiayi, the country's top auditor, said in a report to the National People's Congress that local governments had an overall debt of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.65 trillion) by the end of 2010, and some were at risk of defaulting on payments.

The scale, amounting to more than one-quarter of China's GDP in 2010, which stood at 39.8 trillion yuan, raised concerns that local government debt could destabilize the financial system of the world's second largest economy if it is not managed properly.

Although some analysts argued that concern over local government debt was unnecessary as long as the country maintained its rapid economic growth, some international investors have lowered their outlook on China's long-term local-currency rating.

Leading rating agency Moody's said on Tuesday that China's local government debt could be even larger than the official number, which may set off loan defaults.

Since China reportedly bought Jap sov bonds I come back to the idea of going long USDJPY
@78 that level was not hit yet.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 17, 2011 12:47
China Security Memo, this particular edition on Looking into Reverse Mergers on Wall Street.


http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebox/china-security-memo-looking-into-reverse-mergers-on-wall-street
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 15, 2011 12:50
It pains me to see such a great nation (and world leaders) on the path of self destruction. We don't see much frustration from US traders in this forum but other american traders I have got to know over many years are immensly frustrated with the last 10 years of administration in their great country.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jul 15, 2011 12:38
Cat, that's a very radical theory. I tend to believe that US are capable of increasing the debt ceiling ad infinitum (as they have always stupidly done in the past) but very incapable of deficit reduction plans. Obama is all about big spending, dug a massive hole for themselves. Downrating is needed next.