USD

From MNI FX Bullets

S&P: It should be noted that Standard & Poor's move to place the United
States AAA rating on negative credit watch is even more forceful than
that by Moody's on Wednesday. The S&P rating decision is not solely
dependent on passage of a debt limit extension -- which it expects --
but rather on whether it sees a credible -- meaning large -- long-term
deficit reduction plan emerge from the current Washington political
turmoil. Since S&P cut the long-term rate outlook to negative on April
18, the fiscal policy debate has "only become more entangled. Despite
months of negotiations, the two sides remain at odds on fundamental
fiscal policy issues. Consequently, we believe there is an increasing
risk of a substantial policy stalemate enduring beyond any near-term
agreement to raise the debt ceiling." In essence, S&P seems to be giving
lawmakers and the White House 90 days to come up with such a plan,
saying the prospects are only 50/50 that they will. A small deficit cut
plan to get a debt limit extension passed is not sufficient.

Ashraf

From MNI FX Bullets

US TSYS/BUDGET:

To clarify the mkt rumors, they appear to stem from
WHse briefing. WH's Carney said "We are now in a situation where, you
know, our side, the White House, has made clear in a presentation
yesterday that -- significant cuts, $1.5 trillion in cuts, that
everybody can agree on, real and significant, an additional $200 billion
in cuts that essentially we believe everybody can agree on. That's $1.7
trillion, significant in of itself. The president wants more. You know
why? Because that significant agreement is right there on the table to
be achieved if people are willing to lead and to compromise and not
posture and not -- and not cater to, you know, segments of their own
constituencies. So we want to build on that. Today they will discuss
significant issues in terms of savings that could be found -- reasonable
savings that could be found in the health care entitlement programs,
significant savings that can be found through the tax code. And all it
requires is for leaders of both parties, as well as the president, to
decide that achieving something significant here is a worthy goal."


Ashraf

Latest from MNI about the Debt Ceiling

Hill Returns To Work On Debt Limit Package>
--House, Senate Return To Washington; Parties Ponder Debt Hike Impasse
--President Obama, VP Obama Set To Meet With Senate Dems Wednesday
--House Budget Committee To Hold Thurs Hearing On Defense Budget
--House To Work On Key FY'12 Spending Bills; Senate To Debate Libya



By John Shaw



WASHINGTON (MNI) - For better or for worse, both the House and

Senate will both be in Washington this week ostensibly to work with

President Obama on a package to increase the statutory debt ceiling and

cut budget deficits.



But so far, no meetings have been scheduled between top

administration officials and Republican leaders in Congress.



Late last week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced the

Senate was cancelling its Fourth of July recess this week so senators

could work intensely on fiscal issues.



The House, which was out last week, had already been scheduled to

be back in Washington this week.



The Senate returns Tuesday to debate a resolution authorizing U.S.

military involvement in Libya.



The House returns Wednesday and will take up the fiscal year 2012

defense and energy and water spending bills and possibly flood insurance

legislation.



Reid said Senate Democrats will review a draft FY'12 budget

resolution Tuesday by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad.

Conrad has said that his plan will be broadly based on the work of the

Simpson-Bowles commission and cut the deficit by $4 trillion over a

decade. The House passed its budget resolution in April.



Reid said Senate Democrats will also meet with Obama and Vice

President Biden Wednesday and key members of Obama's economic team

Thursday.



Senate Republican leaders are likely to spend this week blasting

Obama's management of fiscal issues and outlining their reasons for

supporting a balanced budget constitutional amendment. Senate

Republicans are pressing for a vote on a balanced budget amendment

sometime this month.



The House will take up a balanced budget constitutional amendment

the week of July 25.



Treasury confirmed last Friday that the deadline for increasing the

statutory debt ceiling is August 2.



The White House has said it wants to reach an agreement on debt

ceiling legislation with Congress by July 22. Even if an agreement is

reached by Obama and congressional leaders on a deficit reduction and

debt ceiling package in late July, it would take some time to put the

accord in legislative language, secure cost estimates from the

Congressional Budget Office, and bring a bill before the House and

Senate.



Most analysts expect Obama, Biden, Reid, Senate Minority Leader

Mitch McConnell, and House Speaker John Boehner to take the lead in

trying to assemble a package.



There has been growing speculation that any agreement reached this

month would couple about $1 trillion in spending savings with a debt

ceiling increase of the same size.



The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said Congress must pass

legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2.



In other action this week, the House Budget Committee will hold a

hearing Thursday at 10 a.m. on defense spending issues.



A House Financial Services subcommittee will hold a hearing

Thursday at 10 a.m. on mortgage servicing and foreclosure mitigation

issues.



The same subcommittee will hold a hearing Friday at 10 a.m. on

legislation intended to prevent federal bank regulators from penalizing

community banks for modifying loans.



Ashraf