Article Archives (2012)

• Ashraf Laidi & 2012 Trading Academy Winner John Walsh on CNBC - Dec 21, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 21, 2012 11:20
  John Walsh, the winner of City Index 2012 Trading Academy competition tells CNBC how he won the £100,000 prize during the 6-week competition, discussing the education and training provided by Ashraf Laidi & James Chen.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 20 ديسمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 20, 2012 16:45
  We have seen 2 of the 3 requirements for yen weakness; i) increased asset purchases (up by another 10 trn yen), ii) rising equities. The 3rd factor will have to be rising bond yields. In order for this to happen, the BoJ will have to explicitly redefine price stability in its charter to say "2% in the medium term" and not just in the long term. On the fiscal cliff negotiations, President Obama may be using Rpeublicans' awkward backing of pro-gun laws in his talks about taxing the rich and sending cuts. Regardless of the progress made in the talks, any fear of a disagreement by year-end is unlikely to weigh on markets, which are boosted by central banks' enthusiasm to ease and look the other way from inflation targets. 14 new trades have been added in the latest version of Premium Insights: Direct Access: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium/euro-sticks-to-script Non-members:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/account/logon?ReturnUrl=%2fpremium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 13 ديسمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 13, 2012 17:49
  European Banking Union made its first step in December when European finance ministers agreed the ECB will be responsible on supervising banks with over € 30 bn in assets, effectively excluding most of Germany's small saving banks. This will cover about 200 banks in Europe. ECB will have the power to intervene and set the day-to-day procedures for national supervisors, but still no word on whether it will have ultimate responsibility. For Germany, the Union will likely advance as long as it does not impinge on the +400 savings banks, which have been widely credited for the survival of small business during the financial crisis. For our latest Premium Insights & trading ideas on EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY, AUDUSD and OIL, click here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=700 Click here to subscribe: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Dec 4, 2012 - Part 1

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2012 9:19
  Are US companies beAre US companies being faulted for overspending dividends to beat upcoming changes in taxes laws, or do they have sufficient cash to raise distributions? Could the focus on dividends stem from the shift away from bonds? The latest Premium Insights edition went long AUDUSD despite anticipating the RBA cut, eyeing 1.05. Latest Insights also have new calls on EURUSD (2), GBPUSD (2), EURJPY (2), CADJPY (1), EURGBP (2), Gold (2), Silver (2), US Crude CL_F (2). DIRECT ACCESS herehttp://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=697 Non subscribers can click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk - Dec 4, 2012 - Part 2

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 4, 2012 17:26
  How can the FTSE maintain its 9-year streak of positive Decembers and what's the impact from the BoE decision as well as the changing dynamics in UK jobs. The latest Premium Insights edition went long AUDUSD despite anticipating the RBA cut, eyeing 1.05. Latest Insights also have new calls on EURUSD (2), GBPUSD (2), EURJPY (2), CADJPY (1), EURGBP (2), Gold (2), Silver (2), US Crude CL_F (2). DIRECT ACCESS herehttp://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=697 Non subscribers can click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 29 نوفمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 29, 2012 14:59
  Three decent US figures; US Q3 GDP was revised up to 2.7% from 2.0%, Jobless Claims fell to 393K from 416K; and Oct pending home sales rose 5.2% vs exp 1.0%. The US economy is succeeding to reduce the imbalances in its budget deficit, trade deficits, unemployment and housing sector. Markets shrug the disappointment of the downward revision in US personal consumption. As for the Fiscal Cliff, Republicans are now willing to consider raising taxes on the top wealthiest 2%. In fact, even Warren Buffet and PIMCO are for tax hikes. Wat does this say about pilicy?

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 28 نوفمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 27, 2012 15:43
  Telling CNBC Arabia Telling CNBC Arabia's Lubna Bouza the latest Greece deal involved reducing Debtr/GDP to 124% by 2020 instead of the expected 120% by 2020 or 120% by 2022. Haircuts (losses on Greek debt) and maturity extensions on existing EFSF loans are part and parcel of the deal. This reflects Markel's insistence to keep Greece in the Eurozone as long as she is Chancellor. Bond yields vs equity gains were also discussed as well as the prospects for the year-end rally, which is increasingly to preserve its seasonality this year.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 21 نوفمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 22, 2012 12:59
  EU summit negotiations continue to revolve around the following points: Will EU/IMF agree over maintaining the 120% debt/GDP target to be attained by 2020, or will they grant more debt relief by extending the target date to 2022 but tightening the debt/GDP target to 110% instead of 120%. The IMF continues to oppose extending the date to 2022. EURUSD technicals have improved slightly but require major catalysts to break above the mutli-confluence resistance of 1.2820-30. EURJPY remains the preferred alternative to buying EUR, especially as we near our objective of 107 from September. For direct trading ideas, see our latest Premium Insights athttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=695 For a 1-week trial, please click here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 13 نوفمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 13, 2012 14:49
  

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box - 8 November 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 8, 2012 13:26
  Whether the US ends up in the outbreak of the fiscal cliff or simply delaying it, the materialization or the threat of a clear deterioration in GDP (F.C. may cause as much as 1% drop in GDP growth) will give no choice to the Fed but to resume (and possibly deepen) its policy of asset purchases. Regardless, Deceember expected to trigger fresh rounds of CenBank stimuli. For the latest tradable ideas on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, CADJPY, AUDUSD, gold, silver and oil, visit our Premium Insights athttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 06 نوفمبر2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 6, 2012 15:43
  Ashraf Laidi tells CNBC Arabia to avoid making simplistic if-then scenario analysis on the US elections for US equities due to the presence of three major elements: 1) Potentially positive market implications of Obama keeping pro-QE Bernanke, likely offsetting classical partisan implications for equities. 2) Implications of Romney threatening trade war retaliation with China as a consequence of labelling Beijing as a currency manipulator (which is a USD negative). 3) Interaction between the new White House and Congressional balance of power and its impact on averting the Fiscal Cliff.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 24 اكتوبر 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 24, 2012 16:08
  Ashraf points out Euro markets (FX & bonds) are showing the opposite behaviour from earlier this summer, being the last to sell-off during risk aversion, while back in May-July, euro FX & bonds were the last to stabilize during rallying equity markets. 1.2940 trendline continues to hold as far as the NY close and 1680s and 30.80 are the support levels for gold and silver respectively. Metals will continue to outperform energy. Also mention word of the Aussie starting to outperform the Canadian dollar as the latter is weighed down by the BoC warnings and Canada's govt rejection of the Malaysian-owned Petronas' takeover bid of Progress Energy Resources.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box - October 12, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 12, 2012 19:29
  Ashraf Laidi's 10-minute discussion on CNBC Squawk Box reiterates his case for $1.35 EURUSD target by November, based on techno-cycles, volatility trends and fundamental dynamics. Ashraf also touches upon the latest dynamics in peripheral bond yields against the moves in the single currency and the IMF's readiness to relax debt deadlines.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 11 اكتوبر 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 11, 2012 16:30
  Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia of his intermediate bullisness in US Crude oil prices, eyeing 96, on S&P500 likely retesting of 1420s and a short term bounce in Apple before a retest of 600. His take on EURUSD's 200-dma remaining a key support until further clarity from Spain determines whether 1.3080s will be taken out. For more tradable ideas, see the latest Premium Insights from Thursday, titled "Breaking down GBP Stochastics". A Direct link can be found here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/ ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squaw Box - Asia September 17, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 11, 2012 16:22
  Ashraf hosts CNBC Squawk Box in Singapore, predicts more strengthening in EURUSD towards $1.35 by US elections, makes the case why the ECB's OMT and Fed's employment-focus is a game changer. He also talks aout EURJPY, silver, gold and Asian FX

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box Sep 18, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 18, 2012 8:01
  Ashraf Laidi discusses the 3 secular moves of the euro over the past 5 years, including the upcoming one as well as distinguishes the latest ECB plan from prior bond purchases programs and its implications for the currency. He also talks Aussie, loonie, Malaysian Ringgit & Singapore USD.

• أشرف العايدي يقدم تنبآته عن الأسواق العالمية - Sep 13 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 13, 2012 14:34
  

• أشرف العايدي في العربية -- سبتمبر 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 13, 2012 14:28
  

• أشرف العايدي البيانات الصينيه في سي ان بي سي -- اغسطس 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 9, 2012 14:52
  Thursday's release of China's Jul CPI slowed to 1.8% from 2.2% (vs expectations of a lower 1.7% figure), which is the lowest level since Jan 2010. Notably, the decline has continued despite the rise in corn and wheat, which was instrumental in raising food prices in China. Retail sales hit their lowest since Jan 2010. With Chinse equities near their 5 -year low, the foundation of support may grow thin in the event of further data deterioration. For today's tradable ideas on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY, gold & oil, click herehttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=673

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 31 يوليو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 31, 2012 15:49
  2 days before the ECB meeting, ECB pres Draghi is expected to meet with Bundesbank president Weidmann. Will it be to discuss the possibility of restarting the securities markets programme to buy Spanish and Italian bonds, a program widely opposed by the Germans. Draghi's. While Wednesday's FOMC decision is expected to produce no call for action from the Fed regarding QE3, the ECB may reiterate its readiness to restart the SMP, but no as soon as this week. Spanish and Italian 10 year govt yields are 10-15% off their highs, while G10 equities are only 3-5% below their 2012 highs. For tradable ideas on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, gold and silver, see Monday's Premium Insights here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=670 Non subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi Co-hosting CNBC Squawk Box - July 25, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 28, 2012 2:08
  Ashraf talks about policy & FX implications of Draghi's remarks as well as the rumours of that the LTRO could unleash a 5-year LTRO. Ashraf gives his EURUSD outlook going into the US GDP report and addresses the ECB's shock-&-awe in delivering the next blow to sovereign bond yields. For tradable Premium Insights, click here:http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• مقابلتي عن إتهامات بنك إيش إس بي سي على برنامج الحصيلة

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 18, 2012 17:56
  

• أشرف العايدي على العربية -- 17 يوليو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 17, 2012 18:03
  Bernanke resorts to the familiar method of reiterating the Fed's willingness to do more if required by the labour market without necessarily signalling any imminent action. Euro is the biggest victim of Bernanke's silence, losing nearly a full cent to reach $1.2205 after Bernanke's text hit the wires. The single currency faces increasing macro, fiscal and structural challenges deemed required to extend its decline below $1.20 and towards the $1.18 levels of 2 years ago when Eurozone problems were far less pronounced than they are today. Short of an aggressive round of outright asset purchases from the Fed and a 3rd LTRO (this time at 0.75%), the single currency's days above $1.20 may become numbered. The question then remains, to what extent will any central bank-driven euro bounce remain short-lived? And with a stimulus package from China becoming more imminent, chances for coordinated global interventions become inevitable.

• Ashraf Laidi Cohosting on CNBC Squawk Box - July 11, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 12, 2012 13:53
  Ashraf speaks on Operation Twist vs. Quantitative Easing, central bank's remaining tools, the euro's current valuation, the latest recapitalisation solutions for the Eurozone, LIBOR vs TED spread and German bunds.

• أشرف العايدي في قناة العربية -- 10 يوليو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 10, 2012 22:35
  The continued strengthening of the US dollar despite worsening US jobs and manufacturing activity, and broadening evidence of a sluggish China results from market realization that the Fed's shortened and sterilized QE (Operation Twist) deployed until year-end will be inadequate in addressing the unavoidable deterioration in global activity. As long as the presence of Operation Twist prevents any new QE program, equities rebounds should remain contained, commodities to probe further downside (led by oil until grains turnaround) -- all alongside a rising USD. Throughout, gold and silver compete for which is the preferred dead-cat bounce. For direct access to Friday's Premium Insights, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=664 Non Subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• أشرف العايدي في قناة سي ان بي سي العربية -- 4 يوليو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 4, 2012 16:01
  

• أشرف العايدي في قناة العربية -- 27 يونيو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 28, 2012 7:03
  Ashraf explains the notion of debt mutualisation vs. Eurobonds, stating that the former uses Eurobonds to refinance all debt EXCEEDING 60% of GDP. Eurobonds proceeds would go into a Eurozone Redemption Fund. ursuing the path of Eurobonds via maturity extensions (up to 25 years) & preferential interest rates would require a loss of sovereignty. Ashraf also talks about the increasingly adversarial opposition pursued by the Germans (to further backing the Southern nations) French (against loss of sovereignty) and Italians (insistence to obtain time for recent reforms). Ashraf also mentions the metrics reflecting danger, such as Spain 10yr yields surpassing7.5%, Italian yields regaining 6.50-6.75% and their spreads with German 10 year yields nearing 5.0% from their current levels of 4.6%. Premium Insights include the analysis for trades in progress as well as those were squared to pave the way for the next sessions. See more detail on the latest trades http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=660 Non subscribers can take part here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC About Football & the Eurozone - June 22, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2012 3:26
  Ashraf draws a few analogies between the Euro2012 Football match between Greece and Germany and their respective roles in the Eurozone. Barely five years ago, it was unimaginable for Germany's "player of the moment" to be named "Mario Gomez", or have a prolific midfielder named "Mesut Ozil". Just as it has become more "accepted" for Germany's football team to have key players originating from Poland, Spain, Turkey and Tunisia, Chancellor Merkel's government may have no choice but to play by the rules of reality demonstrating flexibility in dealing with its Southern neighbors. The Bundesbank's staunch opposition to bond purchases was overcome two years ago and will likely do so again this autumn with the inclusion of a third LTRO. Although the LTRO was solely useful for containing bond yields and alleviating banks' liquidity costs by dragging down EUROIS spread, it was beneficial in buying policymakers time. Just as the German central bank succumbed to those demands, it has grown tolerant of a temporary increase in inflation. Now Berlin may need to accept rendering the fiscal rules more flexible, by allowing an extension of fiscal targets for Spain and Greece. Berlin is also being pressured by France and the IMF to further support recapitalizing banks directly without the involvement of the governments, as is currently proposed for Spain. The latest Premium Insights include 10 new trading ideas, with 3 new charts on yen crosses and 1 on latest US business surveys andhttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/ ?a=658 Non subscribers please click here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• أشرف العايدي في قناة العربية -- 19 يونيو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 19, 2012 19:15
  Ashraf tells AlArabia's Lara Habib that the FOMC is expected to open the door for further quantitative easing at Wednesday's FOMC statement, but such program may not take effect until later in the summer. The reason the Fed will not start the new program right away is due to the recent rally in equities (decline in VIX), which reduced the need for any immediate measures. Ashraf tells AlArabia's Lara Habib that the FOMC is expected to open the door for further quantitative easing at Wednesday's FOMC statement, but such program may not take effect until later in the summer. The reason the Fed will not start the new program right away is due to the recent rally in equities (decline in VIX), which reduced the need for any immediate measures. Markets are likely to see a resumption of the risk-on trade, largely in equities as long as the Fed communicates a clear indication regarding further measures in the future.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC After Greece Elections - June 17, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 18, 2012 6:42
  In a 2-part interview, Ashraf says why EURUSD is expected to extend its gains as part of the corrective bounce after Greece's New Democracy won nearly 30% of the votes and will lead a collation government which is likely to be made up of New Democracy and third-place Pasok. Ashraf distinguishes outright QE vs. Operation Twist, highlights the shape of EUROIS spread, gauges EURUSD technical and distinguishing PIIGS & BRICs foundation. The lack of any unfavourable event detracts attention of Central banks of worrying about: 1) delivering "liquidity" solutions (such as currency swaps) and places Greece back onto worrying about securing its 1bn tranche, which was withheld after May's inconclusive elections, and; 2) covering its 3.9 bn interest payment to the ECB due in August. DOES THIS MEAN we extend our RIsk-On Positioning? Find out our latest Premium Insights on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here:http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/sub01/access/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 12 يونيو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 12, 2012 17:50
  Most particularly about today's action is the recurring divergence between a falling euro and rising equities (alongside risk currencies weighing on USD) before the Fitch downgrade triggered an-all round risk-off reversal. As we speak, markets are attempting to rebound into the green, leaving the euro behind, highlighting the possibility that further question marks in Spanish banks ability to recapitalize will not necessarily spill-over to non-Eurozone assets as far as contagion is concerned. Combining the Spain bailout with expectations of a market-friendly outcome in Greek elections (New Democracy now leads over leftwing Syriza party) and signals for further QE in next week's FOMC allows for an extension of the recent rebound in equity indices. This is already favouring the risk currencies of GBP, NZD and AUD, with CAD. last night's Premium Intermarket Insights titled "Maintaining Consolidation View, include" longs EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD and gold. No positions in US crude. Distinguishing between the short and medium long term in these trades remains key. Direct Access here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=645 Non subscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

• أشرف ألعايدي على قناة سي إن بي سي العربية -- 06 يونيو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 6, 2012 19:36
  Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia that the latest downgrades of 7 German and Austrian banks may be merely a sign of partial exposure to faulty loans in Central and Eastern Europe, but the drag from Southern Europe on Germany remains a matter of concern. This is seen in all of Germany's surveys (investor, economic, consumer and industrial), all of which are at or nearing contraction territory. Much of these macro charts are looking increasingly similar to late 2007, early 2008. The current bounce in risk appetite at the expense of USD is here to stay, but for how long? And will it be followed by a 100-pt consolidation until the next barrage of policy solutions? Click here for direct access to today's edition:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=644 Click here to subscribe: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box- June 6, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 6, 2012 6:36
  Ashraf tells CNBC that despite the broadening dynamics of a risk-off environment (dismal US jobs report and financing deadlock in Spain), the current rebound in EURUSD, stabilization in gold and pullback in the USD is a reflection of 3 temporary factors. Ashraf speaks about the difference between dissecting "muddling through" solutions and fundamentals-changing policies, extent of EURUSD bounce, latest Aussie GDP figures & why they are lagging, Bank of Canada direction, remaining solutions from the ECB as well as the dynamics of the US economy. The CURRENT BOUNCE in risk appetite at the expense of USD is here to stay, but for how long? And will it be followed by a 100-pt consolidation until the next barrage of policy solutions? Tonight's Intermarket Insights provide the trading ideas and charts on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, US crude and gold. Click here for direct access to today's edition:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=644 Click here to subscribe: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC as Euro Hits New 2012 Lows - May 24, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 24, 2012 7:15
  Ashraf confirms that the EURUSD downcyles he warned about back in November are on their way in completion as the pair targets the initial target of $1.20. And with China's PMI deepening into contraction level, the trade argument for falling Eurozone growth becomes all too hard to ignore. Here are those cycle charts we first showed in November (see weekly EURUSD chart)http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/charting-euro-macro-yields-libor-spreads.asp

• أشرف ألعايدي على قناة العربية -- 14 مايو 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 14, 2012 18:56
  Dax remains firmly supported and so does S&P500 but the latter appears more vulnerable to a technical break. Germany's benchmark index continues to close above the trendline support extending from the September 2011 lows. It also closes at 6577, just above the 100-week moving average of 6561. Meanwhile, the S&P500 may have broken below the September trendline support, but manages to hold above the 100-day moving average (1349). The index requires a follow-up/beak above 1375 in order to extend the rebound towards the next barrier at 1385 (55 DMA). To subscribe to our Premium Intermarket Insights, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Arabia (Greece, Spain & Techs), May 10, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 10, 2012 16:40
  The balance between austerity and growth appears to be tipping into the side of growth reforms, prompting Eurozone sovereign yields to remain supported at the expense of the euro. Meanwhile, markets (euro bulls) are hoping that former Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister Venizelos will succeed in forming a new coalition (Democratic Left, Pasok and New Democracy) next Sunday, while excluding the anti-austerity Syriza party. As vocal as the anti-austerity backlash erupts in the Greek street, it lacks the required momentum to pass a complete rejection of austerity policies in Parliament. Meanwhile, EURUSD shows a familiar bottoming pattern, covered in our latest Intermarket Insightshttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC - Apr 30, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 30, 2012 7:49
  Ashraf Laidi talking about Spain's proposal for a bad bank and what are markets really looking at; growth or austerity?

• Ashraf Laidi on AlArabiya; US GDP, Types of QE & Eurozone, April 28, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 30, 2012 2:20
  Ashraf tells AlArabiya last week's release of advanced US Q1 GDP was the best of both worlds for the Fed; sufficiently weak to unveil a new round of asset purchases (positive for stocks & risk appetite) and sufficiently strong to offset any purchases with sales on the short-end of the yield curve (sterilized version a la Operation Twist). With core personal consumption expenditure index (inflation gauge) regaining the 2% figure at 2.1%, the argument for a sterilized version of purchasing mortgage backed-securities is bolstered further. The 2.2% GDP was lower than expectations of 2.6% and whisper number of 3.0%, but close enough to trend growth rate of 2.5%. Also on the positive side, personal consumption expenditure rose 2.9%, the highest since Q 2010.Slowing contribution from private domestic investment and private inventories was offset by an improving contribution in net trade, government spending and personal consumption. Euro resilience to Spain downgrade builds further on softer than expected US GDP. Markets require more out-of-the-box catalysts in order to destabilize the EURUSD below its 1.3100 floor. As long as more FOMC members (more than before) have shifted to keeping low rates until 2014), the euro requires a more destabilizing factor (USD-positive) in order to break below the key floor. The FOMC will most likely trigger a sterilized version of QE, namely Operation Twist 2, which involves keeping long rates down and short rates supported in order to further help out the housing market.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC, talking April Tops, Ezone Volatility & Fed - Apr 16, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 16, 2012 17:12
  Ashraf reiterates is March warning that April may prove a difficult month in equities as was the case in over the last 2 years. Also adding his take on China's currency, Eurozone volatility, solvency vs. liquidity & nervousness ahead of the April 25 FOMC.

• Ashraf Laidi on China's Currency & Eurozone to AlArabiya - April 14, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 15, 2012 3:22
  Ashraf tells AlArabiya that China's decision to widen its currency fluctuation band against the USD to 1.0% is another signal that the Chinese yuan (RMB) will be heading lower or remain flat at best into the end of the year. Ashraf has shown one day before today's announcement how CNY (green line) was immobile during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the currency seems to be entering a new phase of immobility, but this time, justified by weakening data (GDP, CPI and trade balance) . As the currency remains unchanged (or declines) and GDP growth consolidates to 7.5% level, this raises serious questions about Chinese overall commodity demand. Copper (China's hot commodity) is already 20% below last year's highs. If commodity traders no longer find solace from the Fed asset purchases, then the short-lived declines we saw recently in metals and energy may be here to stay... especially when combined that sluggish Chinese demand and a weaker CNY. Spanish government bonds are now the latest victim of bond traders typical one-country assault amid speculation that Spain will be the 4th recipient of a Eurozone bailout. At a time of deepening recession, Spanish authorities have selected education and health sectors for 10 billion in budget cuts. Cuts in these sectors have yet to prove successful or sustainable the he Eurozone. Little surprise that the biggest yield gainers are of nations, which are not yet bailed out Spain and Italy. The combination of protracted gains in Spanish government bond yields and rebounding volatilities (EUR 1mth & VIX) would be needed to break the euros floor of $1.2900. The possible fundamental culprits for such occurrence: For latest Intermarket Insights, seehttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=625

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC post-NFP & Bernanke - Apr 10, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 10, 2012 7:00
  Ashraf tells CNBC that additional QE with a twist is the most likely scenario once the current program ends this summer. He adds that FX markets tend to become quickly overbought USDs and euros, while market positioning is more slated towards anticipating further Fed stimulus than none.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBCArabia's Al-Hasila Talking Euro Joblessness - Apr 3, 20121

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 3, 2012 19:36
  Ashraf tackles the topic of 15-year high unemployment in the Eurozone as a result of deepening austerity measures. Part of the unemployment problem is due to structural unemployment stemming from inefficient social security services discouraging employment. These issues were already a problem prior to the 2007-8 crises. Ashraf also touches upon the potential of escalating social malaise spilling onto deteriorating racial tensions, especially if government shift further to the right as might be in the case of France.

• Ashraf Laidi on AlArabia: Japan, Yen, BRICs & QE3 Mar 28, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 28, 2012 19:15
  Ashraf talks about the yen outlook following the start of the new Japanese fiscal year, indicating that renewed overseas investments from Japan may further weigh on the currency. He also discusses the outperformance of G7 equities relative to the BRICs, attributing it to improved fundamentals from the US and central bank--based policies in Eurozone and UK. Finally, Ashraf reiterates that Fed Chairman Bernanke's lack of enthusiasm with the improvement in US labour markets is aimed at maintaining markets' hopes for further QE. At the end of the day, Ashraf sees a "restricted" form of quantitative easing, rather than outright injections.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBCArabia on Apple & US Banks & Indices- Mar 20, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 20, 2012 10:13
  Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia that 1 week after the biggest US banks announced a hike in dividend payouts and share purchases, technology blue chip Apple announces a $10 bn stock buyback and the first dividend in 17 years. The news has given a fresh lift to equities, lifting the NASDAQ by 18% YTD, more than double the DJIA's 8.5%. S&P500 is up 12% YTD. Ashraf adds that the stock-specific news from Apple and JP Morgan are providing a positive response to concerns from the bearish camp pointing to the lack of outright QE3 from the Fed as reason for worry. For tradable ideas on these dynamics, visit the Premium Intermarket Insights here: www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC on Yields, Fed & USD - Mar 16, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 16, 2012 6:54
  Ashraf discusses the possible challenges facing the Fed as higher bond yields could complicate the objectives of Operation Twist. Will the dollar continue to rise alongside equities? And which currencies are positioned to benefit from any shift in trend?

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC after the PSI Deal - Mar 9, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 9, 2012 7:44
  Ashraf Laidi speaks on CNBC minutes after Greece secures its agreement on the PSI deal from 86% of creditors. All these PSI acrobatics were aimed at enabling Greece to receive its 2nd bail out and meet its March 20th payment. There are no guarantees that Greece will not need a 3rd bailout as the nation enters its 6th year of recession as well as prolonged policy following the outcome of the elections later this year. Let's also not forget that negative Eurozone pressures (rising yields, falling euro & surging CDS prices) tend to be exasberate the euro siuation as these are draged by risk aversion, which may be the result of oher exogenous factors such as less dovishness from the Fed

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Arabia about NFP & QE3, Mar 7, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 7, 2012 14:01
  Ashraf previews ECB meeting & Friday's US jobs report on CNBC Arabia. He states the recent improvement in US labour markets may further reduce the case for further asset purchases from the Fed, which may lead to ongoing market correction. With Feb ADP coming in above 200K, chances for +200K NFP become elevated. Thus, a robust report on Friday may trigger a positive knee-jerk reaction in equities and energy market before a possible turnaround later in the US session.

• Ashraf Laidi on AlArabiya PSI, Gold & Debt - Mar 03, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 4, 2012 1:13
  Ashraf speaks with AlArabiya's Nadine Hani on the Private Sector Initiative offer for Greece, saying that at least 75% of creditors have to accept the deal, otherwise the nation will be unable to meet its € 14 bln payment due March 20. Greece is hoping that between 80% and 90% of creditors will approve the deal. Ashraf also covers the latest selloff in metals, attributing it to Bernanke's inflation reference in last week's speech, which dampened expectations for QE3. He reminds that the euro and metals had been consistently boosted by anticipation of QE3 from the US as well central bank injections (BoE, ECb & BoJ), and any speeches or market dynamics hinting the contrary, would be detrimental to the single currency, which continues to suffer from ongoing structural challenges. More on Ashraf's charts regarding gold, silver and euro, click on this detailed analysis: http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/gold-silver-face-the-fed.asp

• Ashraf Laidi talks FOMC, Euro to AlArabiya Jan 28, 2012

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 30, 2012 19:22
  Ashraf Laidi tells Arabiya that the Fed's downgrade of its economic outlook and the extension of zero rate policy will raise expectations (& speculation) for a 3rd round of asset purchases. The result would be prolonged renewed buying in equities at each dip, and choppy trading in EURUSD. Ultimately, however, the Fed will likely fall short of delivering a 3rd round of QE and disappoint the overall risk trade.

• Ashraf Laidi's 2012 Euro Preview on CNBC

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 16, 2012 23:01
  Ashraf Laidi tells CNBC's Maria Bartiromo about the need to understand the dynamics of 2010 and 2011 in order to grasp the first half of 2012, involving the interaction between the Eurozone recession, BRICs cycles and US economy. He also discusses the latest carry trades by the Eurozone banks, borrowing from the ECB LTRO to purchase higher yielding sovereign bonds, which helps supress bond yields despite ongoing Eurozone woes.

• Ashraf Laidi Previews 2012 with Alarabiya's Nadine Hani

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 7, 2012 22:43
  Ashraf Laidi tells Nadine Hani of AlArabiya the US economic expansion will continue into the 1st half of the year but shall struggle closer to the summer as the Eurozone slowdown overlaps with a deepening retreat in the BRICs. The result will be re-emerging speculation (and need) for QE3 in the US, which will be manifested in renewed downside in US and global equities. Ashraf has drawn parallels to a particular phase in 2010 in his Premium Intermarket Insights, which can be viewed herehttp://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

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