Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 31, 2008 20:40
Comments: 114
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart

Daily chart of 14 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:42
ashraf agreed completely. soros speculated against the pound and broke the fixed exchange rate.

but as you said, you can still trade using economics for longer term trends and thats why i think the US dollar index will run a bull and at worst stagnate
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:33
spec, your chances of succeeding at trading with basic ECON are ONLY good if your positions are LONG TERM and even THEN... you're not sure. As for what you said about what traders do, traders rid of supply-demand imbalances and go as far as FORCING THE MARKET's HAND. you do remember what SOROS did to the BoE. Being a trader, he brought Bank of England to its knees, by NOT ONLY REACTING TO ECONOMIC DEFICIENCIES, BUT ALSO BY EXPLOITING THEM (more proactive than what u said to be reacting).

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:18
is that what traders 'just' do huh?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 19:01
carlco,

longer term trends can be associated to economic changes. traders just react to changes in market conditions and speculate
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 18:59
since when have economics had anything to do with markets? We in the UK like pretty pictures ashraf, check out some herehttp://stats.oecd.org/oecdfactbook/
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 18:16
ashraf,

academics are normally risk adverse so they wouldnt trade.

i find it hard to discount the use of economics for LONGER term trends.

traders are traders and making enough money which is keeping banks alive too. but i think technical analysis is better for shorter trend 4casts. one cant use economic theory for day trades.

i note that you (and me) were almost sure of a 2 month cycle in equities and thats why we had a poll of how low we thought cable would reach in q2. we were soon to realise that we were in a massive equities bull dollar bear for q2 that shocked us all. had we looked at it fundamentally, we could used economic theory to justify a faster decline in the dollar but we didnt. so traders do misjudge but on average do well.

i am learning technical analysis but will use it with basic economics and fundamentals.

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 17:16
spec, ever since coming to the UK in Dec ive been amazed at the lack of tech analysis knowledge among retail investors in the UK compared to their US counterparts. Im NOT saying tech analysis is everything, but for any trader to ignore it is foolish. Meanwhile, how many economic PhD have made money trading?

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:40
this forum is all about discussing and we will have different views.

there are masses of dollar bears out there.

there was masses of oil bulls just prior to its collapse when i was predicting a sharp reversal.

i tend to look at markets (for longer term 4casts) in an economic way which seems to work. obviously short term the technical aspect is more likely to work.

we were taught that technical analysis is rubbish at Cass Business School during my MSc finance course so im really quite new to all this anyway and learning trader reactions, concepts and relationships. its all quite fun!
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:38
You're welcome Rajesh .
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 16:30
Spec ,you could be on to something that others are blind spotted to .
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