Forum - US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart (Topic)

Carlco

bristol, UK

Posts: 151

15 years ago

Jun 28, 2009 9:29

The BBC News 24 are running a special report series from China these next few weeks. you can find it on BBC iPlayer - Can China save the world - i believe it's a fairly balanced view.
Also OECD latest on world health -http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8116234.stm
I also read sometime ago that last year non_OECD countries surpassed oil consumption of OECD (i think it was oil-so may need correcting on this)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 27, 2009 16:18

thanks Ashraf - that's a great answer - China is a great inspiration on many levels.
BUT. They should be boxing way more clever, they have a fixed currency anything rhetoric is fairly meaningless, in my humble opinion they have bitten the hand that has fed them for 10 years. If the Chinese got more creative they could write off those US Treasury bonds , maybe convert them in some form to the IMF, for the new currency, radical i know, it'll never happen i know, but the upside for the world and chinese kudos let alone Ying and Yang, would be REAL international economic stimulus. The USA would owe China so big time that it probably would concede to some form of joint default currency.

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 18:00

Carlco, not exacly. your so-called head of school (IMF) is desperate for cash and is borrowing from china while so called bully is getting weaker and is ONLY sustained by the status quo in currency order which is gradually changing. China has worked hard to get where it is so let it do what any country excercising the basics of national interest would do. Chinese currency fixing is aimed at stabilizing yuan while fattening its fx reserves before eventually liberalizing its fx regime/market and becoming part of the fx reserve system.

Ashraf

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 16:54

Ashraf, Saber rattling it's been going on for months, that would make for some interesting moves in the USD. . How can they advocate fixing their currency price at the same time as touting IMF's SDR as the new default currency. Puzzling why you would lend your hard earned money to the greedy playground bully, then encourage the Head of School to take it for themselves.
moral, if you don't want a bloody nose don't play with the school bully! and then run crying to teacher when you run out of tissue. no one likes a cry baby.

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 16:08

Carlco, jt, yes china will have to adjust from flaling US imports but it's already doing so by pumping fx reserves into domestic economy (state owned bansk) rather than pockets of consumers. China continues to use its chance to lecture US on its economic mess just like US was lecturing china on human rights and taiwan, but now that US power in East Asia is eroded, all US can do is hope for China to keep buying. CHna is buying LESS and LESS of US paper and its intentions to shift a world reserve currency (partly made up by yuan) are legitimate, credible and serious.

Ashraf

jt

United States

Posts: 15

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 15:45

Ashraf,

With China once again calling for a new reserve currency.. Do you believe China crying wolf too many times?

The US savings rate is at 15 yr high and if Americans continue to save like this for an extended period of time, should be bullish for the dollar.

Bad news for China, the US will be importing much less from China... but their US debt holdings should be good..

Could China become a Train Wreck and not a savior if the US savings rate holds for a long period of time?

JT

Carlco

bristol, UK

Posts: 151

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 15:07

Ashraf, i had to comment on your tweet about reuters-chinese mutterings about the reserve currency. I didn't hear the Chinese crying when exports to the USA were bringing in $trillions that they have now through artificially capping their currency, sounds to me like they should practice what they've preached to the rest of the world for 2 millennium about Ying & Yang. I feel very strongly about this since they first started crying about their falling bond values. Complaining now in the middle of the worst financial crisis in post war history just shows their true colours. I hate this political posturing and it's yet another example of why regime's absolute power corrupts absolutely.

JackD

United States

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 25, 2009 2:27

Thank-you Ashraf for that. It's a little clearer now.

-Jack

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Jun 25, 2009 1:46

Jack, will trey to be thorough here. my forecast for current dollar strength was based on my expectations for the FOMC statement while upcoming strength (and yen strength) is largely on heels of what i see to be a more selling in equities (another 10-15% from here)Technically, stocks can no longer sustain the cartoon-like (running on air) display seen 2 weeks ago, where technicals showed heavy indecision yet the invisible hand was preventing them from falling. economically, the "less worse data" you talk about was enough to stage a rebound off their very cheap levels (March lows) but "less worse" is insufficient in extending a 45% rally during a recession. This Fed-BoA saga will not help and neither will accusations on bernanke. Having said that, i do expect sometime in late Q3 for dollar weakness to reemerge even if stocks do not rebound. Having said that , i side with Long term Aussie long positioning for the yield differential. so be nimble during dollar longs

Ashraf

JackD

United States

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 25, 2009 1:27

Dear Ashraf,

I am confused as to why you believe that USD should be stronger now. IF the US economy is getting better (or less worse) and if the Fed are not making motions that they will print more money, then equities would have a chance to rise again. If that is so, then risk aversion lessen, and more risk appetite usually means lower USD. I am asking for clarification. Not making a statement. More like asking a question. If I have it wrong, I like to get it right and understand it at the same time.

Humbly,

Jack