Article Archives (2013)

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 05 ديسمبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2013 18:14
  

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC - November 29, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 3, 2013 15:11
  The central bank with the clearest forward guidance has had the weaker currency because it has the greater set of policy options by which to keep interest rates low. The interview illustrates the cases of the Fed, BoE and ECB.

• أشرف العايدي على قناة دبي -- 14 نوفمبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 15, 2013 8:14
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• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 13 نوفمبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 13, 2013 21:52
  Ashraf discusses the BoE upgrade 1 week after warning that Wednesday would be a positive day for sterling. Also discussing EURUSD, USDJPY and commodities.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 07 نوفمبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 8, 2013 4:09
  The gap between the refinancing rate and the deposit rate has been reduced to 0.25%, the lowest level since the euro began trading in January 1999. Interestingly, the gap is three times as low as in 2009, when inflation was negative during the financial crisis, compared to the current 0.7%. The above developments are likely to prevent EURUSD from breaking above the $1.37 even if Draghi did not mention euro strength, but it remains premature to expect a euro decline below $1.30 (which coincides with the 100-week moving average) considering the likelihood of downward GDP revisions in the US and prolonged asset purchases from the Fed. For tradeable ideas in FX, gold and silver, please visit:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• City Index Ranks #1 in FX Forecasts

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 28, 2013 14:31 | 8 Comments
  Ashraf Laidi's currency forecasts lift City Index to the top of the rank of FX Week's forecasting poll

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 02 أكتوبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 2, 2013 15:39
  EURO is the only major currency to have risen against the US dollar in every October since October 2009. And in over the last 10 years, EURUSD fell only three times in October; 2003, 2005 and 2008. For more tradable ideas on FX and gold, please see here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/usd-in-shutdown-mode

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية 1 أكتوبر2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 2, 2013 11:44
  ?? ???? ????? ??????? ????????? 17 ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ??????. ????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? 1 ?????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ??2013-2014. ????? ?????? ??? ????? "????" ???????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???????? ????????? ??? ??????? ????????. ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ?????. ???? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ???? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ????????? ??????? ? ???????? ?????????? ?????? For tradable insights in FX and gold, please click here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• ي على قناة العربية 19 سبتمبر 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 19, 2013 18:26
  The Fed told us many times "tapering is not tightening". By that same logic, yesterday's "not to tapering" is "no easing". But the resulting market response certainly felt like an easing. And it will continue to do so for a while. The Fed decision to maintain $85 bn in monthly asset purchases is the latest manifestation of fiscal policy interfering with the central bank's adjustment of monetary policy. The risk of a government shutdown next month and the resulting failure to raise the debt limit could exacerbate the nascent recovery if $10bn or $15 bn were removed. Today's release of US August existing home sales hitting 5-year highs and the Philly Fed index at 2-year highs appear a valuable set of evidence in markets' data watch, but it is the labour market data, which command supremacy for the Fed. What if Yields Rose Again? Here's the Fed's upcoming trick, likely to be added into the forward guidance. So fat, the guidance has primarily focused on a threshold for the unemployment rate, but yesterday's comments from Bernanke suggested setting an "inflation floor" as a "sensible modification to the guidance". If attained, this could be a successful means of slowing down rising yields as long as falling unemployment is not accompanied by a recovery in inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation figure, core PEC price index, is at 2 ½ year low of 1.2%. Further declines nearing 1.1% could render the inflation forward guidance to become a carte blanche for further awaiting that 6.5% unemployment rate without fretting about the need for higher interest rates. For tradable ideas on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD and gold, please seehttp://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 11 سبتمبر 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 11, 2013 15:51
  Unlike previous episodes of pronounced strength when the currency was boosted by a general advance in risk-on dynamics (robust market optimism, improved growth in G5 and BRICS) the current phase of sterling rally is primarily driven by UK-specific factors across manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The marked improvement in labour markets fails to have any notable impact on wages but maintains market rates at 2-year highs. Sterling is now the best performing currency among the 11 most actively traded currencies over the last 6 months, rising 5.8% against the US dollar, and hitting 4year highs against the yen. The UK unemployment rate (ILO measure) fell to 7.7%, hitting its lowest level since November, which also matched the lows in April 2011, September 2009 and May 2009. The ONS' claimant count unemployment rate hit 4.2%, its lowest level since February 2009. Jobless claims fell by 32,600, marking the 10th straight monthly decline and accumulating a net decline of 177,000 in unemployment claims since November. But the 3-month average of weekly earnings fell to a 4-month low of 1.1% y/y from 2.2%. Yields on 10-year gilts hit a fresh 2-year high at 3.05%, or 0.06% above their US counterparts, the highest differential in 6 months. GBP also Boosted by Britain's Isolation So far, the market implications of a strike on Syria have been generally binary; whereby a looming attack weighs on equities, risk currencies (primarily the euro) to the benefit of the US dollar. Sterling has been spared from the sell-off in risk currencies due to Britain's isolation from the crisis following the anti-strike vote in British Parliament. The positive impact on USD from a looming strike stems from the equities-currencies chain of reaction.

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية 21 أغسطس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 21, 2013 17:28
  

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC - August 15, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 15, 2013 23:56
  Falling jobless claims figures in the UK & US are rendering claims by the BoE and Fed on rising yields to be pointless. Efforts from Carney and Bernanke to talk down yields are increasingly futile as jobless claims hit 6-year lows and 3-year lows in the US and the UK. At the end of day, Carney's forward guidance message is not so different from Bernanke's: i) Rates will not be raised before 2 year's time; ii) Bernanke refereed to 6.5% unemployment and Carney referred to 7.0% unemployment as thresholds; iii) Both used 0.5% as the maximum excess over 2% inflation. These dates are so far off the horizon, that they reduce the relevance of longer-term yields and shift volatility towards the shorter-end of the curve. Currency traders eyeing yield differentials are increasingly focusing on 2-year yields in the UK and the US as the central banks of both nations perfect the art of forward guidance. And with the UK/US 2-yr yield spread in positive territory (2-yr yields in UK above US), GBPUSD shall remain supported above 1.5350s. GBPUSD faces further upside near 1.5680-1.5700, while maintaining support above 1.5300. GBP support will also emerge from the Fed's insistence on maintaining policy accommodation due to the risk of averting disinflation. Thus, even a decision to taper purchases in September may end up being USD neutral if the tapering is deemed to be more modest than expected ie $5 bn instead of the average $10bn. For tradable Premium Insights, please visithttp://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 06 أغسطس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 6, 2013 16:43
  . ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ????? "???? ??? ???????" ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ?? ????. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???????? 2.0 %. ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 2.0% ??? ?? ???? ?? 4 ?????. ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? 2.2% ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ???????. ????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? 2.0% ??????? ??????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? "???? ???? ??????". The only bit of forward guidance from Carney's BoE has been the indication that current gilt yields were too high. That is not enough. Carney will have to introduce an additional policy objective besides the 2.0% inflation target. UK annual inflation has been above 2.0% for nearly 4 years. Despite halving inflation to 2.2% last autumn, the BoE has yet to meet its mandated target. At next week's inflation report, we expect Carney to introduce growth-oriented targets, such as employment metrics or loans to the private sector, enabling the Monetary Policy Committee to stimulate hesitant growth without focusing attention on a single price target at the expense of sacrificing vital growth. As long as Mr. Carney insists that inflation will recede back towards 2.0% and uses terms such as "escape velocity", bond traders can be assured that monetary policy is far from "maxed out".

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC on the GDP, FOMC & Summers/Yellen - Jul 30, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 30, 2013 17:25
  Ashraf discusses the reasons for tapering, the upcoming GDP, FOMC releases and on the race for Fed Chariman by Larry Summers and Janet Yellen. 6 reasons the Fed will/must taper in September 1. Record highs in US equities 2. 6-year highs in US consumer sentiment 3. Longest streak of +100K NFP in 12 years 4. 6-year lows in unemployment rate 5. Bernanke is highly unlikely to leave this year depart without a tweek in the asset purchasing program. Failing to do so would label him as Greenspan Bubble Master #2, starting the QE bubble without a plan to end it or even scaling it down. 6. Cannot afford a new round of USD weakness at expense of strengthening currencies of weaker economies. For tradable ideas on FX & metals, please visit http://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 30 يوليو 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 30, 2013 14:44
  Record highs in the stock market, 6-year highs in US consumer sentiment, the longest streak of +100K NFP in 12 years, 6-year lows in unemployment rate, 2-year highs in bond yields. With these dynamics at play, the Fed ought to scale down monthly asset purchases, by at least $10 bn this year (even if it is symbolic) to account for the change in fundamentals over the last 6 months (and not the last 6 weeks). Failure to do so, is serious lapse of credibility to Bernanke and doves at the Fed. ????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ????? ??? 6 ????? ?? ???? ??? ????????? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ?????? ?? 100 ??? ?? ??? ??????? ????????? ??? 12 ?????? ???? ????? ??? 6 ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ??? 2 ????? ?? ?????? ???????. ?? ???? ??? ????????????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ????????? ????????? ????? ???? ?????? ???????? ??? ?? ??? ?? 5 ????? ????? ??? ????? (??? ?? ??? ??? ?????) ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?? 6 ???? ??????? (???? ?? 6 ?????? ???????). ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????? ???????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ????????? ?????????

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 23 يوليو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 23, 2013 16:42
  Traders must also bear in mind that the tapering of purchases is a mere "cooling" in the pace of easing, rather than tightening. After all, asset purchases remain a form of easing, or money supply expansion, which has swelled up the Fed balance sheet to a record $3.5 trillion. There is a vast gulf of market movements and expectations between easing, neutral and tightening. We remain well in the midst of policy easing. ??? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ???? "?????" ?? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ?? ?????. ??? ?? ??? ? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????????? ???????? ????? ????????? ????????? ??? ????? ????? ????? 3.5 ??????? ?????. ???? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ????????? ??? ??????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????. ?????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ????? ???????. For our latest trades and charts, visithttp://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium/

• 2013 07 18 cnbceurope

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 18, 2013 21:29
  

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 9 يوليو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 9, 2013 16:10
  Historically, markets rallied as the Fed transitioned from interest rate cuts to a neutral policy stance. The principal reason a central bank pauses from easing is the stabilization of economic growth. As the data transitions from stability to expansion, the central bank reduces stimulus, allowing economic and business green shoots transform into full bloom. And thus, it is no surprise that the S&P500 rise during periods of neutral monetary policy following interest rate cuts. Sep '92 to Jan '94: S&P500 +15% Nov '98 to May '99: S&P500 +16% June '03 to May '04: S&P500 +18% For tradable ideas in EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD and USDCAD, please click here http://www.ashraflaidi.com/trades/

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 3 يوليو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 3, 2013 17:30
  More improvement in the UK economy welcoming the new BoE governor as UK June services PMI hits 27-month highs at 56.9, days after the June manufacturing PMI hit 26-month highs at 52.5. Both of UK services and manufacturing PMI indices stand well above those of the US, China, Eurozone and Germany. After all, the BoE's monthly asset purchases of £375 bn account for 26% of GDP, compared to 0.55% of GDP for the Fed's $85 bn and 1% from the Bank of Japan's planned purchases. Combining the BoE's greater easing with the 4% decline in the pound's trade weighted value year-to-date, the currency and monetary policy channels are proving more effective.

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 24 يونيو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2013 14:03
  As Chinese money market ratres hit 6-year highs, the PBOC noted the spike in rates was a result of falling FX capital flows and excessive reliance on short-term borrowing by some banks. There is talk of a reduction in the minimum reserve requirmenet ratio (RRR), which had not been cut since May 2012. Combining the stresses in China's banking system with ultra-low rates in Australia, the case for going against the Aussie remains strong. AUD is already the worst performer this year, down 11% against the USD, underperforming even the Japanese yen. FX traders with more creativity, can consider getting on the dips in EURAUD and capping the bounce in AUDCHF.

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 06 يونيو 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 6, 2013 22:06
  Sterling's rare superiority in the "fundamentals is seen in the charts of the global PMIs for manufacturing and services. For the first time in over 5 years, UK PMIs in both services and manufacturing have surpassed those of the US, China, Eurozone and Germany. With the Bank of England going as long as 12 months without increasing monthly asset purchases, such relative policy positioning is becoming increasingly positive for the currency. And with UK data hovering from neutral to positive, the case for additional asset purchases is weakened.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 05 يونيو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 5, 2013 20:32
  Ashraf continues to expect that the Fed will not reduce purchases this year, but the US dollar is likely to retain its firmness. While the Fed is locked into the pendulum of market expectations of tapering/maintaining purchases, the ECB remains linked to the rate cut/rate hold pendulum. Ashraf also explains the 2 main structural changes lining up in favour of the Nikkei despite recent losses. The trading implications of such insights are found in: http://ashraflaidi.com/account/logon?ReturnUrl=%2fpremium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 22 مايو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 22, 2013 17:14
  Ashraf gives his assessment on BoE's Mervyn King, UK inflation and the pospects for FX. The Fed's repetitive references to tapering asset purchases and increasing them are the latest rhetorical tool in guiding market sentiment. As the economy cools off, the doves at the Fed are on a mission to restore a more symmetric rhetoric, following a hawkish narrative prevailing in the first 3 months of the year. Both of our longs in EURUSD thei final targets as so did GBPUSD shrt. USDJPY and USDCAD are 20 pips away from their final objective. 1 of 2 silver shorts ae in progress. Full detail on trades & charts are here: http://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• Ashraf on FT Video with John Authers - May 14, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 16, 2013 2:20
  Telling the FT's Investment Editor John Authers why the USDJPY is particularly powerful and could extend to 108. Never since the USD was freely floated has USDJPY rallied for 8 consecutive months. Aside from some historical technical points, the choice of the Bank of Japan governor, the disinflationary tendency of the world economy and the positioning of the Federal Reserve are among the key forces underpinning the rally ahead. For tradable FX ideas, please see our Premium section. http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 13 مايو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 13, 2013 17:23
  93% of shares in the ?&?500 are trading above their 200-day moving averages a level not seen since May 2011. The indicator (200-DMA participation) gives an idea on the internal strength of the underlying index, by highlighting the degree of participation of individual shares in the current rally. In addition, the S&P500 went 49 weeks without falling more than 10%, which is the longest since the 60 weeks elapsing between March 2009 and April 2010. For our latest Premium Insights, please visithttp://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• Ashraf Laidi co-hosting CNBC Europe - May 3, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 4, 2013 17:07
  Ashraf discusses: - The prospects of negative ECB rates - Novtony's remarks highlighted by Austrian banks' situation - On the Hedgehog-Fox analogy regarding Bernanke-Draghi - Macro-Market Divergence - Outlook for Equities - Views on EURUSD and USDJPY

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 1 مايو2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | May 1, 2013 15:39
  The contrast between stable market metrics and recession-stuck Eurozone offers little choice to the ECB but to opt for the rate cut route instead of the LTRO alternative. A 25-bp cut may be insignificant, but failure to cut would disappoint 80% of market participants expecting a rate cut, which may trigger a fresh euro rally to the detriment of the already struggling Eurozone, including a recession-bound Germany. A Draghi rate cut would be more tactical than macroeconomic. That is especially the case considering the FOMC will most likely downgrade its economic view and put to rest all speculation of tapering QE before year-end. A dovish Fed on Wednesday will have to be followed by a dovish ECB on Thursday.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 30 أبريل 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 30, 2013 17:38
  ECB's Draghi is now forced by the market to go on with the much anticipated rate cut --even if it it has little macroeconimic effect. Leaving rates unchanged would prop the euro higher, especially as the FOMC will likely downgrade its economic view on Wednesday and dampen expectations of any eearly reduction of QE. For more tradable ideas on EURUSD, the rest of FX pairs and metals, please visit:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 18 أبريل 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 18, 2013 18:36
  Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia about the losses in gold and the $560 bn in losses to central bank reserves. Fears of margin hikes in China, chatter that Italy (4th largest owner of gold) may start selling reserves; Fed selling GLD naked shorts in order to rebalance the 50-1 ratio of Buyers-Sellers of bullion; and violent unwinding of the short yen/long risk assets trade leading to gold liquidation. Last week we warned about the sharp drop in the Gold/S&P500 ratio, which today has reached a 5-year low. The big question now emerges as to where gold will go. 1350 has proven to be the 30% peak to trough decline, referred to in previous webinars and to our Premium subscribers. The recent bounce may lift gold towards 1400s but so far the indications suggest gold will revisit 1350s and may have the dynamics to extend further down to 1290s. Our bearish stance of the past 3 months has been mainly backed by multi-time frame momentum measures, which we converted into recommendations for our Premium subscribers with varying success due to miscalculation of stops. More importantly, trading rationales were accompanied with each trade and shift in bias. There are also important developments in the Gold/Silver ratio and the extent to which silver may add to its losses.http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 15 أبريل 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 15, 2013 14:23
  Gold selloff turns to a free fall on reports of margin calls hitting buyers at the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China's weaker than expected GDP figures coming in at 7.7% from 7.9% did not help metals either. Fears that nations other than Cyprus will resort to gold selling to bolster their finances are hurting the metal. Silver extends collapse to 23. Both gold and silver are seeing a Monday rebound, which many conclude to be bottom fishing by the central banks. To find out, which of the 2 metals faces more downside, take a look at our note on the Gold/Silver Ratio in the latest Premium note. New trades are issued on GOLD, SILVER and USDCAD with accompanying trading notes to lay out the rationale for these trades.http://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 09 أبريل 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 9, 2013 15:28
  Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia about the 5th consecutive daily rise in EURUSD—the longest series of advances since December as the balance of risks in FX shift from waning event risk in Eurozone to question markets about US growth. One key source of volatility is Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes. Each of the last 3 FOMC minutes led to a rallying USD and tumbling gold. Selling USD bounces is part of the strategy, while 1.3150s is the anticipated cap in EURUSD. In our latest Premium Insights, we issued 3 new trades in EURUSD last night (Monday), 2 of which are currently in progress. For all the trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, gold, silver and US crude, please see the latest Premium Insights here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 03 أبريل 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 3, 2013 15:33
  Telling CNBC Arabia that yen traders await Thursday's BoJ decision, which will be scrutinized for whether governor Kuroda succeeds in producing a majority vote in favour of an increase in the amount of assets buys and extending the duration of bonds under the asset purchases program (APP to five years or longer, from the current three years. There is also the contentious "bank note rule", which stipulates that total asset purchases by the central bank may not exceed total bank notes in circulation so as to avoid monetizing of the debt. The worst from Cyprus is gone as long as there are no signs that haircuts on deposits spread to other Eurozone nations. Both ADP and services ISM were a disappointment, which is leading to fresh yen strength vs USD. The latest Premium trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and GBPUSD are found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/short-term-forms-medium-horizon

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 25 مارس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 25, 2013 16:14
  

• Ashraf Laidi on Bloomberg TV - Mar 22, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 22, 2013 12:54
  Telling Bloomberg TV that gold rallies resulting primarily from Eurozone woes are more short-lived than gold rallies resulting from announcements of fresh QE. The current gold bounce is a result of Eurozone investors seeking haven into the metal (as was seen in the Greece & Italy episodes in the chart below), but it does NOT imply a prolonged gold rally vs USD. It's imortant to distinquish gold in USD & euro terms.Ashraf also gives his view on EUR and JPY. For tradable ideas, please the latest Prmeium Insights. http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 19 مارس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 19, 2013 16:53
  Neither Russian nor other depositors in Cyprus must receive Cyprus announcement to tax bank accounts as a surprise as these warnings emerged back in December from Germany --at a time when the media was busy with the US Fiscal Cliff and Greece's successful bond swap operation. Gold vs USD breaks its first 5-month string of losses (longest since 1997) and may be targeting 1625-28 before month-end. Yet, the faster-momentum pattern is in Gold vs. EUR; breaking an 18-week downward trendline and highlights similar upside as in May 2012 (Greek election impasse) and Nov-Dec 2011 (Italy debt selloff and political uncertainty). As the ascending weekly stochastics gain in strength, we could well see a break above the 100-WMA of 1250 and an extension towards 1,285. In order for EURUSD not to lose support below 1.2820-30, we will have to see a follow-up in Gold/USD towards 1645/50.

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box - 19 March 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 19, 2013 12:34
  Neither Russian nor other depositors in Cyprus must receive Cyprus announcement to tax bank accounts as a surprise as these warnings emerged back in December from Germany --at a time when the media was busy with the US Fiscal Cliff and Greece's successful bond swap operation. Gold vs USD breaks its first 5-month string of losses (longest since 1997) and may be targeting 1625-28 before month-end. Yet, the faster-momentum pattern is in Gold vs. EUR; breaking an 18-week downward trendline and highlights similar upside as in May 2012 (Greek election impasse) and Nov-Dec 2011 (Italy debt selloff and political uncertainty). As the ascending weekly stochastics gain in strength, we could well see a break above the 100-WMA of 1250 and an extension towards 1,285. In order for EURUSD not to lose support below 1.2820-30, we will have to see a follow-up in Gold/USD towards 1645/50.

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 12مارس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 12, 2013 16:18
  Ashraf discusses the record highs in the Dow-30 relative to its US peers due to rallying banking stocks (JP Morgan $15 below its all time high) while technology stocks stay behind. Making the point that US employment dynamics are healthier than those in 2007 with respect to flow and trend, the case for 1600/10 in the S&P500 is solid. Ashraf also discusses the damaged sterling following the latest manufacturing data, which show a deepening contraction in the sector. GBPUSD looks onto 1.46 as the Bank of England has yet to open a new round of asset purchases. For the latest tradable ideas in EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, CADJPY, AUDJPY, gold, silver and oil, please visit here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/latest

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 4 مارس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 4, 2013 20:02
  

• أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية -- 4 مارس 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 4, 2013 18:55
  Ashraf Fed mentions the inverse relation between global equities as the US dollar rises on expectations that the US economy will Europe and Japan. No expectations for the ECB to cut rates this week but look out for further downgrade in economic forecasts.

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 28 فبراير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 28, 2013 19:35
  Telling CNBC Arabia that the Euro's rebound to 1.3150s would be reversed back towards the 1.2980s as long as Italy's parties struggle to form a temporary govt before the 2nd round of elections is due. Meanwhile, the art of delaying budget resolutions is being perfected by US politicans ahead of Friday's sequester deadline. For the latest tradale ideas on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, Gold, silver and US crude, please check our Premium Insights http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• أشرف العايدي على العربية -- 26 فبراير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 26, 2013 13:14
  

• أشرف العايدي على العربية -- 19 فبراير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 19, 2013 17:11
  Ashraf Laidi tells AlArabia traders about the remaining phases of yen selling, leading the way for 98 in USDJPY and 132 in EURJPY. Current friction between the PM and the MoF over the appointment of the new BoJ governor is nothing but a distraction as is the decision to only use domestic bonds in guiding monetary policy. Thursday's Premium trades in USDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY and AUDJPY hit their final targets, leaving EURUSD, gold and US crude in progress.http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Squawk Box - February 19, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 19, 2013 16:47
  Ashraf tells CNBC the G7/G20 was a useless distraction as far as impacting foreign exchange markets and why further yen weakness is here to stay. He also talks about the candidacy for the BoJ and the goals of the various major central banks. For the latest tradeable ideas on FX, gold, silver and oil, please visit

• أشرف العايدي على العربية -- 6 فبراير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 7, 2013 11:40
  Ashraf doesn't t expect Draghi to make any references to tempering the rise of the euro such as "watching" the markets with "vigilance" because these consist of a threat to intervene, which would be counterproductive considering the currency was on the verge of collapse six months ago.

• Ashraf Laidi on Bloomberg TV - January 30, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 30, 2013 18:54
  Ashraf discusses his $1.35 target for EURUSD initially, before revising it to 1.37 in December. He lays out the arguments for his insistence on further euro gains basing it partly on anticipated collective central bank asset purchases and his position against expecting ECB rate cuts. The technical arguments were also laid out throughout the last 4 months on secular FX recovery and classic bullish formations. For tradable ideas on FX and commodities, check our latest Premium Insights here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/latest

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC January 29, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 29, 2013 7:51
  Telling CNBC the ECB balance sheet has in shrunk by 5% over the last 6 months compared to increases of 5-15% for the other big three. The ECB's refraining from currency wars may not be the only reason to the euro's sharp rebound. 32-month highs in Germany's business surveys and solid auctions by most periphery Eurozone nations as of late can be categorized among "stabilizing fundamentals" for the Eurozone. The road to $1.37 in EURUSD remains intact as suggested in our Dec 4 note "1.35 Euro Target Revised up". .$1.40 is no longer deemed an aggressive forecast, and is considered baseline objective for early Q2 2013. For tradable ideas on FX and commodities, please our Premium Insights here: http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trading-the-pause-in-jpy-euro

• أشرف العايدي على العربية -- 23 يناير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 23, 2013 16:11
  Ashraf reiterates his bearish case for GBP and bullish stance for EUR, discussed in his Premium Insights on January 16. He points out the UK's inability to boost growth via austerity and rising probability of renewed QE by the BoE. Ashraf also talks about the firming support for gold and he confluence between key moving averages and 5--year trendline. Upside seen sufficient to produce 1730-50 before momentum reaches a new juncture. From the Jan 16 Premium Insights on GBPUSD: "The divergence between GBPUSD and EURUSD is reflected in our ongoing bullishness in EURGBP, which started back in October. Although the June trendine support remains intact, we anticipate a break of the support to extend towards the 100WMA (1.5960). This requires a decline under 1.60, which would be the first since late November. The negative convergence between the weekly and monthly charts highlights the medium term negative outlook for the pair. We will be targeting initial support at 1.5960, followed by 1.5910, which is just above the 55-WMA and 200-WMA of 1.5870 and 1.5840 respectively." To subscribe to AshrafLaidi.com's Premium Insights on FX, gold, silver and oil, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades

• Ashraf Laidi on CNBC Discussing FX & Equity Correlations - Jan 9, 2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2013 11:23
  The notion of a positive trifecta (US dollar, US bond yields and US equities will rise in tandem) may materialize only briefly in H2, before Eurozone markets catch up alongside EURUSD once Greece and Italy GDP growth hits positive territory (thanks to comparative element and friendly market conditions in capital markets). For the latest tradable ideas on FX, gold, silver and oil, please click here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/account/logon?ReturnUrl=%2fpremium%2fa-little-trade-diversification

• أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 7 يناير2013

  by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 7, 2013 15:42
  Ashraf Laidi discusses the "surprising" release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting indicating "Several" FOMC members favoured stopping or slowing the pace of asset purchases well before end of 2013. Ashraf clarifies there is a vast ocean between slowing down the pace of purchases, seizing purchases altogether, and starting to sell bonds. Slowing the pace of purchases by no means implies a policy tightening. The impact of any shift in policy is more likely to be reflected in rising bond yields than in falling equities. Markets undergo several phases of transition according to the shifts of Fed policy, but one thing is clear is that neother the flow of asset purchases nor the decline in the unemployment rate will ever go in a straight line. Ashraf's 4-year comparative performance charting of 11 currencies, 7 equity indices, & 14 commodities for Premium Insights members. - What was the best performing currency in 2012? - How to find out w/out making several cross-FX comparisons? - What conclusion to draw from Aussie's performance relative to CAD & JPY? - How copper fared vs against gold and crude? - Coffee, cotton and corn are also included, as well as FTSE-100, S&P500 and the Nikkei-225. FIND OUT HERE: http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/comparative-intermarket-performances-from-2009-to-2012

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